Published pick
445 Lawton St
94122 · San Francisco
Verified
Underwritten as of 2026-08-25 · record v11 · Board pick #4 · 2026-08-25
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $416,755 · S&P breakeven 14.6% · crash floor -0.7% published conservative basis
Engine scenarios
| Scenario | Verdict | Margin | S&P breakeven | Crash floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | House-Hack | +$416,755 | 14.6% | -0.7% |
| Base | House-Hack | +$815,010 | 17.9% | -2.3% |
| Optimistic | House-Hack | +$1,248,870 | 20.8% | -4.1% |
Conservative leads — base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500.
Property facts
| Asking price | $1,190,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 4 / 4 |
| Square feet | 3,240 |
| Year built | 1914 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 29 |
| Neighborhood | Inner Sunset |
| Strategy lane | Live in one unit, rent the other three |
| Nearest catalyst | N-Judah Muni Metro corridor (0.41 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr |
From the 2026-08-25 screen: 71 scanned · 15 beat the S&P at our defaults · 56 rejected — this one ranked #4.
Why it made the board
A four-unit Edwardian in the Inner Sunset at $1,190,000, which works out to under $300,000 a door in the ZIP with the best tenant credit in the city. The pool here is UCSF Parnassus residents and postdocs on one-to-three-year appointments, and three rented units pay $7,392/mo while you live in the fourth. The N-Judah is 0.41 mi away and the S&P needs 14.6% a year to beat this.
The play
Live in one unit, rent the other three.
Financing basis: Owner-occupied at 3.5% down.
Tenant pool
UCSF Parnassus residents and postdocs / SFSU students (UCSF Parnassus, ~0.5 mi)
Rent basis
- Hack phase (you occupy one unit): $7,392/mo
- Full rental (after move-out): $9,504/mo
Your numbers
This property’s published facts are already loaded. Adjust the inputs that are about you and the verdict recomputes right here — nothing is sent or saved.
Ours: $3,126/mo — the biggest lever, ~25× the whole down-payment range.
Ours: 0 (pre-tax) — the same basis as the published verdict.
Ours: 10-year hold.
Ours: 3.5% (FHA floor) — changes affordability, barely the economics.
Ours: $250,000 default — day-one capital for either side of the comparison.
House-hack wins by $416,755
Currently at our published defaults — adjust any field to make it yours · S&P breakeven 14.6%/yr · same engine as the published verdict.
Record v11 · engine.cjs@aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack · publish-property-records.cjs@7