Published pick
3159-3163 23rd St
94110 · San Francisco
Verified
Underwritten as of 2026-08-25 · record v11 · Board pick #1 · 2026-08-25 · week 4 on the board
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $997,560 · S&P breakeven 20.3% · crash floor -4.4% published conservative basis
Engine scenarios
| Scenario | Verdict | Margin | S&P breakeven | Crash floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | House-Hack | +$997,560 | 20.3% | -4.4% |
| Base | House-Hack | +$1,511,992 | 23.6% | -6.6% |
| Optimistic | House-Hack | +$2,338,167 | 27.6% | -14.9% |
Conservative leads — base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500.
Property facts
| Asking price | $1,549,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 9 / 4 |
| Square feet | 3,673 |
| Year built | 1900 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 64 |
| Neighborhood | Inner Mission flats |
| Strategy lane | Live in one unit, rent the other three |
| Nearest catalyst | 24th St Mission BART (0.19 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr |
From the 2026-08-25 screen: 71 scanned · 15 beat the S&P at our defaults · 56 rejected — this one ranked #1.
Why it made the board
Four flats at $1,549,000, 0.19 mi from 24th St Mission BART. You live in one and the other three pay $9,378/mo at our cautious rents, roughly $112,500 a year against a $1.55M basis. The S&P would need 20.3% a year for a decade to keep up, and the seller has already cut $46,000 off the ask.
The play
Live in one unit, rent the other three.
Financing basis: Owner-occupied at 3.5% down.
Tenant pool
Healthcare workers / Young professionals (Zuckerberg SF General Hospital, ~0.5 mi)
Rent basis
- Hack phase (you occupy one unit): $9,378/mo
- Full rental (after move-out): $15,504/mo
Published sensitivity bands
| Band | Rent | Wealth vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Cautious | $15,504/mo | +$997,560 |
| Expected | $16,000/mo | +$1,511,992 |
| Best case | $18,400/mo | +$2,338,167 |
Your numbers
This property’s published facts are already loaded. Adjust the inputs that are about you and the verdict recomputes right here — nothing is sent or saved.
Ours: $4,200/mo — the biggest lever, ~25× the whole down-payment range.
Ours: 0 (pre-tax) — the same basis as the published verdict.
Ours: 10-year hold.
Ours: 3.5% (FHA floor) — changes affordability, barely the economics.
Ours: $250,000 default — day-one capital for either side of the comparison.
House-hack wins by $997,560
Currently at our published defaults — adjust any field to make it yours · S&P breakeven 20.3%/yr · same engine as the published verdict.
Record v11 · engine.cjs@aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack · publish-property-records.cjs@7