Published pick
217 Holloway Ave
94112 · San Francisco
Verified
Underwritten as of 2026-08-25 · record v11 · Board pick #2 · 2026-08-25 · week 3 on the board
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $778,429 · S&P breakeven 18.4% · crash floor -4.5% published conservative basis
Engine scenarios
| Scenario | Verdict | Margin | S&P breakeven | Crash floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | House-Hack | +$778,429 | 18.4% | -4.5% |
| Base | House-Hack | +$1,313,460 | 22.2% | -9.1% |
| Optimistic | House-Hack | +$1,891,355 | 25.3% | -18.3% |
Conservative leads — base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500.
Property facts
| Asking price | $1,199,900 |
|---|---|
| Units | 3 |
| Beds / baths | 8 / 7 |
| Square feet | 2,200 |
| Year built | 1908 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 30 |
| Neighborhood | Ingleside / Balboa Park catalyst zone |
| Strategy lane | Live in one unit, rent the other two |
| Nearest catalyst | Balboa Park BART / Muni Metro (0.44 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr |
From the 2026-08-25 screen: 71 scanned · 15 beat the S&P at our defaults · 56 rejected — this one ranked #2.
Why it made the board
Eight bedrooms and seven baths across three units at $1,199,900, with Balboa Park BART 0.44 mi away. Two rented units bring $5,252/mo while you live in the third; all three run $12,502/mo after you move out. Per-square-foot prices in this ZIP are printing 12-16% below last year, so the entry basis is negotiable, and the S&P still needs 18.4% a year to catch it.
The play
Live in one unit, rent the other two.
Financing basis: Owner-occupied at 3.5% down.
Tenant pool
City College staff and students / Downtown commuters (CCSF Ocean campus, ~0.5 mi)
Rent basis
- Hack phase (you occupy one unit): $5,252/mo
- Full rental (after move-out): $12,502/mo
Published sensitivity bands
| Band | Rent | Wealth vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Cautious | $12,502/mo | +$778,429 |
| Expected | $13,600/mo | +$1,313,460 |
| Best case | $15,200/mo | +$1,891,355 |
Your numbers
This property’s published facts are already loaded. Adjust the inputs that are about you and the verdict recomputes right here — nothing is sent or saved.
Ours: $4,000/mo — the biggest lever, ~25× the whole down-payment range.
Ours: 0 (pre-tax) — the same basis as the published verdict.
Ours: 10-year hold.
Ours: 3.5% (FHA floor) — changes affordability, barely the economics.
Ours: $250,000 default — day-one capital for either side of the comparison.
House-hack wins by $778,429
Currently at our published defaults — adjust any field to make it yours · S&P breakeven 18.4%/yr · same engine as the published verdict.
Record v11 · engine.cjs@aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack · publish-property-records.cjs@7