# 12 Beaver St · The Rent Hacker > Underwriting record for 12 Beaver St (San Francisco): the published verdict at The Rent Hacker's defaults, plus a calculator that reruns it at your numbers. Canonical: https://therenthacker.com/property/rh-fka69c/12-beaver-st/ Source: The Rent Hacker (https://therenthacker.com/). License: RSL, attribution required — https://therenthacker.com/license.xml --- Evaluated # 12 Beaver St At our cautious numbers, renting and putting the same money in index funds comes out ahead. It did not pass our bar. 94114 · San Francisco Underwritten as of 2026-08-18 · record v7 **Published at our defaults:** loses to the S&P, behind by $673,608 · S&P breakeven 0% · crash floor 6% full underwriting, cautious case F F — loses even in the base case; renting and investing the difference wins this one. [Run your own numbers on any building →](/calculator/) This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers. ## The three cases Conservative Base Optimistic Verdict Rent + S&P 500 Rent + S&P 500 Rent + S&P 500 Margin vs the S&P path −$673,608 −$454,759 −$228,857 Rent while you live in one unit $0/mo $0/mo $0/mo Rent after you move out $6,500/mo $7,200/mo $7,900/mo Modeled appreciation 3.0%/yr 3.5%/yr 4.0%/yr Repairs allowance $15,000 $8,000 $0 S&P breakeven 0% 0% 5.4% Crash floor 6% 5.5% 5% Wealth at year 10 −$11,674 $207,175 $433,077 If you sold at year 10 −$112,804 $101,028 $321,689 Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs. ## Property facts Asking price $1,505,000 Units 1 Beds / baths 4 / 2 Square feet 1,626 Year built 1900 Property type Condo Days on market 132 Neighborhood Castro / Eureka Valley core Strategy lane whole-house-after-move-out (condo — our strategy notes's 94114 decision tree excludes condo/TIC/managed-community units from every hack lane regardless of bed count → no Phase-1 hack income, live-in rent: 0) Nearest catalyst Castro Muni Metro Station (0.2 mi) Modeled appreciation 3.5%/yr Unit count: unverified No source we checked states how many rentable units this building has. We modeled 1, the fewest consistent with the listing, and every number on this page rides on it. whole-house-after-move-out (condo — our strategy notes's 94114 decision tree excludes condo/TIC/managed-community units from every hack lane regardless of bed count → no Phase-1 hack income, live-in rent: 0) — Castro / Eureka Valley core · 0.2 mi from Castro Muni Metro Station. Nearby projects on our catalyst watch: - Castro Muni Metro Station (Market & Castro) · 0.2 mi · open today - Castro Station accessibility elevator · 0.2 mi · under construction - Market & Octavia Plan area — Castro gateway (Market St, Buchanan→Church→Castro reach) · 0.2 mi · open today From the 2026-08-18 screen: 400 scanned · 34 beat the S&P at our defaults · 366 rejected; this one ranked #74. ## If the market turns Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Francisco County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation. History replay Years Ends vs the never-buy path Worst window 1989→1999 −$2,281,938 Median window 2001→2011 −$240,667 Best window 1996→2006 +$2,317,631 24 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path. Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $1,029,353 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 8, $1,070,125 behind. The replay holds rent growth to the local legal cap the whole way down. These windows track San Francisco County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.8 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 7.4 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less. ## Where these numbers come from Of the 12 inputs behind this analysis, 2 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 3 are standing conventions; 4 are derived from other inputs; 1 rests on the fewest units the evidence allows. - **Purchase price**: an unclassified source · no independent witness - **Rent while you live in one unit**: a standing area-research rule · single source - **Rent after you move out**: derived from other inputs here · single source - **The rent you would pay on the never-buy path**: derived from other inputs here · single source - **Property tax rate**: an unclassified source · no independent witness - **Unit count**: the fewest units the evidence allows · no independent witness A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence. ## Order the verified underwrite This page is our automated underwriting. Order the verified report and a person does the rest by hand: the live listing, the photos, the parcel's exact tax bill, the rents. The finished report publishes right here on this page, within one business day. [Underwrite this building — $79](/lookup/?address=12%20Beaver%20St#underwrite) or [take the pass](/checkout/?tier=pass) at $49/mo and open every building that wins, the week it lists. ## Want this for an address you pick? Every week we underwrite this metro’s 2-4 unit listings against the S&P and publish the [whole board](/board/), with the reason on every one we rejected. [Or look up a specific San Francisco address](/lookup/) ## Want this analysis for another address? Any San Francisco address, underwritten the same way — cautious rents, the registry, the S&P line. [Underwrite an address →](/lookup/) A full report like this one, for an address you pick: Underwrite an address — $79, delivered within one business day. Record v7 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack Next ## This is one row of the San Francisco board. The run of August 18, 2026 put every two-to-four-unit listing in San Francisco through the same comparison. The rest of the board, losers and rejections included, is one page. [See the San Francisco board](/board/sf-proper/) [Underwrite one address for $79](/lookup/#underwrite) [Take the pass, $49/mo](/checkout/?tier=pass&r=sf)