# 156 16th St · The Rent Hacker > Underwriting record for 156 16th St (East Bay): the published verdict at The Rent Hacker's defaults, plus a calculator that reruns it at your numbers. Canonical: https://therenthacker.com/property/rh-ovftf6/156-16th-st/ Source: The Rent Hacker (https://therenthacker.com/). License: RSL, attribution required — https://therenthacker.com/license.xml --- Evaluated # 156 16th St Beats renting and index funds on our cautious numbers, but by too little to survive an ordinary rent shortfall. It passed the math, not our bar. 94801 · East Bay Underwritten as of 2026-10-07 · record v17 **Published at our defaults:** House-Hack wins by $1,485 · S&P breakeven 10% · crash floor 2.5% full underwriting, cautious case C- C- — barely clears the cautious case; a normal S&P 500 decade roughly ties it. [Run your own numbers on any building →](/calculator/) ## The three cases Conservative Base Optimistic Verdict House-Hack House-Hack House-Hack Margin vs the S&P path +$1,485 +$279,851 +$586,564 Rent while you live in one unit $3,500/mo $4,000/mo $4,500/mo Rent after you move out $5,000/mo $5,700/mo $6,450/mo Modeled appreciation 2.5%/yr 4.0%/yr 5.5%/yr Repairs allowance $15,000 $8,000 $0 S&P breakeven 10% 13.1% 15.8% Crash floor 2.5% 0.6% \-1.8% Wealth at year 10 $1,079,611 $1,357,977 $1,664,690 If you sold at year 10 $1,036,729 $1,308,389 $1,607,467 Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs. [Open these numbers in the calculator →](/calculator/#i=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) Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours. ## Property facts Asking price $670,000 Units 3 Beds / baths 5 / 3 Square feet 2,020 Year built 1918 Property type Multi-Family Days on market 56 Neighborhood Iron Triangle / Downtown Richmond Strategy lane triplex Nearest catalyst 16G11 Neighborhood Complete Streets (0.11 mi) Modeled appreciation 4.0%/yr Unit count verified: 3 units, corroborated by the listing itself. triplex — Iron Triangle / Downtown Richmond · 0.11 mi from 16G11 Neighborhood Complete Streets. ## If the market turns Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Contra Costa County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation. History replay Years Ends vs the never-buy path Worst window 1989→1999 −$336,661 Median window 1983→1993 +$189,823 Best window 1996→2006 +$1,310,940 12 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path. Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $549,772 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 7, $565,044 behind. These windows track Contra Costa County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±1.0 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±2.2 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1976 was 3.7 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less. ## Where these numbers come from Of the 12 inputs behind this analysis, 6 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 3 are standing conventions; 2 are derived from other inputs. - **Purchase price**: our listing feed · corroborated - **Rent while you live in one unit**: area rent comps and research bands · single source - **Rent after you move out**: an unclassified source · no independent witness - **The rent you would pay on the never-buy path**: area rent comps and research bands · single source - **Property tax rate**: our listing feed · single source - **Unit count**: our listing feed · corroborated A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence. ## Want this for an address you pick? Every week we underwrite this metro’s 2-4 unit listings against the S&P and publish the [whole board](/board/), with the reason on every one we rejected. [Or look up a specific San Francisco address](/lookup/) ## Want this analysis for another address? Any San Francisco address, underwritten the same way — cautious rents, the registry, the S&P line. [Underwrite an address →](/lookup/) A full report like this one, for an address you pick: Underwrite an address — $79, delivered within one business day. Record v17 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack Next ## This is one row of the East Bay board. The run of October 7, 2026 put every two-to-four-unit listing in East Bay through the same comparison. The rest of the board, losers and rejections included, is one page. [See the East Bay board](/board/sf-east-bay/) [Underwrite one address for $79](/lookup/#underwrite) [Take the pass, $49/mo](/checkout/?tier=pass&r=eb) In our guide to house hacking Richmond: [Downtown / Iron Triangle / Point Richmond (94801)](/house-hacking/richmond-94801/) · [East Bay guide](/house-hacking/east-bay/)