# 5651 Telegraph Ave · The Rent Hacker

> Underwriting record for 5651 Telegraph Ave (East Bay): the published verdict at The Rent Hacker's defaults, plus a calculator that reruns it at your numbers.

Canonical: https://therenthacker.com/property/rh-pxtedz/5651-telegraph-ave/
Source: The Rent Hacker (https://therenthacker.com/). License: RSL, attribution required — https://therenthacker.com/license.xml

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Evaluated

# 5651 Telegraph Ave

Beats renting and index funds on our cautious numbers, but by too little to survive an ordinary rent shortfall. It passed the math, not our bar.

94609 · East Bay

Underwritten as of 2026-09-23 · record v15

**Published at our defaults:** House-Hack wins by $23,277 · S&P breakeven 10.3% · crash floor 2.3% full underwriting, cautious case

C- C- — barely clears the cautious case; a normal S&P 500 decade roughly ties it.

[Run your own numbers on any building →](/calculator/)

## The three cases

Conservative

Base

Optimistic

Verdict

House-Hack

House-Hack

House-Hack

Margin vs the S&P path

+$23,277

+$480,810

+$932,773

Rent while you live in one unit

$6,600/mo

$7,550/mo

$8,300/mo

Rent after you move out

$8,600/mo

$9,800/mo

$10,800/mo

Modeled appreciation

2.5%/yr

4.0%/yr

5.5%/yr

Repairs allowance

$15,000

$8,000

$0

S&P breakeven

10.3%

14.9%

18.4%

Crash floor

2.3%

0.4%

\-1.5%

Wealth at year 10

$1,117,388

$1,574,921

$2,026,884

If you sold at year 10

$1,046,983

$1,493,508

$1,932,936

Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.

[Open these numbers in the calculator →](/calculator/#i=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) Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours.

## Property facts

Asking price

$1,100,000

Units

4

Beds / baths

6 / 4

Square feet

5,000

Year built

1943

Property type

Multi-Family

Days on market

354

Neighborhood

Bushrod / Longfellow flatlands (Established)

Strategy lane

fourplex

Nearest catalyst

MacArthur BART station (0.97 mi)

Modeled appreciation

4.0%/yr

Unit count verified: 4 units, corroborated by county assessor records and the listing itself.

fourplex — Bushrod / Longfellow flatlands (Established) · 0.97 mi from MacArthur BART station.

## If the market turns

Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Alameda County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.

History replay

Years

Ends vs the never-buy path

Worst window

1989→1999

−$472,195

Median window

2014→2024

+$476,410

Best window

1996→2006

+$2,136,251

10 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.

Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $445,185 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 7, $599,819 behind.

These windows track Alameda County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±1.2 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±3.5 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 5.5 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.

## Where these numbers come from

Of the 14 inputs behind this analysis, 4 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 4 are standing conventions; 5 are derived from other inputs.

-   **Purchase price**: derived from other inputs here · corroborated
-   **Rent while you live in one unit**: derived from other inputs here · single source
-   **Rent after you move out**: derived from other inputs here · single source
-   **The rent you would pay on the never-buy path**: derived from other inputs here · single source
-   **Property tax rate**: our listing feed · single source
-   **Unit count**: county assessor records · corroborated

A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.

## Want this for an address you pick?

Every week we underwrite this metro’s 2-4 unit listings against the S&P and publish the [whole board](/board/), with the reason on every one we rejected.

[Or look up a specific San Francisco address](/lookup/)

## Want this analysis for another address?

Any San Francisco address, underwritten the same way — cautious rents, the registry, the S&P line.

[Underwrite an address →](/lookup/)

A full report like this one, for an address you pick: Underwrite an address — $79, delivered within one business day.

Record v15 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack

Next

## This is one row of the East Bay board.

The run of September 23, 2026 put every two-to-four-unit listing in East Bay through the same comparison. The rest of the board, losers and rejections included, is one page.

[See the East Bay board](/board/sf-east-bay/) [Underwrite one address for $79](/lookup/#underwrite) [Take the pass, $49/mo](/checkout/?tier=pass&r=eb)

In our guide to house hacking Oakland: [Temescal / Pill Hill / Bushrod (94609)](/house-hacking/oakland-temescal-94609/) · [East Bay guide](/house-hacking/east-bay/)