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★ Pick #3 · Unlocked for free readers
1605 Hearn Ave
Southside Transfer Center / Hearn Avenue Civic Hub ·
95407
$470,000 · 3 bd / 1
ba · 1,097 sqft · built 1956
· 65d on market
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Wealth advantage · 10 years
+$43,939
vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 10.5%/yr
for 10 years to match
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Strategy
Rent out spare bedrooms while you live there, then rent the
whole house after you move out
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Financing
Owner-occupied at 3% down
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Live-in rent
$2,000/mo
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Full rental
$2,650/mo
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Renter pool
Local service and construction workforce / Multi-generational
families
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Catalyst
Hearn Community Hub (0.41 mi)
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The case, and the catch
0.41 mi from the $50.7M Hearn Community Hub, a fire
station and regional library that broke ground in November 2025. This
is public money already in the dirt, not a proposal. Two spare rooms
bring $2,000/mo while you live there. Note there is one
bathroom for you and both housemates, which is exactly why these
rooms price at the Roseland end of the band and not the
Bellevue Ranch end. 95407 runs two rental markets about 40%
apart, and this is the cheaper one. Whole house is
$2,650/mo after you move out. At zero rent growth, the
S&P still needs 10.5%.
Three things to know, and they all cut against the deal. It is
an open fixer; the listing says so plainly. Its tax bill is
strange: the parcel pays $4,962 on an assessment of only
$205,894, an effective 2.41% of assessed value against
the ~1.2% its neighbours pay. That gap is fixed special assessments,
and they do not shrink when the property is reassessed to your
purchase price, so your real rate is nearer 1.71% of what you
actually pay, not the county median. We re-ran it at 1.71% and it
still wins, but the margin dropped from $90K to $44K. That is
the thinnest cushion we are willing to publish.
And the one we cannot close for you. FEMA is redrawing Santa
Rosa’s flood maps, and roughly 2,500 properties move into
the flood zone when they take effect around Spring 2027,
inside the two years you would be living here. The corridor at
risk runs along Santa Rosa Ave and US-101, and this listing’s own
description says “the freeway is close by.” If this parcel is
one of the 2,500, a federally-backed mortgage will require flood
insurance, a recurring cost our model does not carry and one
large enough to erase a $44K margin. Run the address through the
City’s preliminary FIRM viewer before you offer. Note that
wildfire, the hazard everyone expects in the North Bay, is not
the issue here: 95407 sits outside every mapped fire-severity zone.
Our #1 pick, a 1963-built Fairfield fourplex, posts the best number
we found, and it is the pick we trust least. The listing markets it
inside a 12-unit portfolio with its two neighbours, so we cannot
confirm you can buy it on its own. The units are tenanted and
long-held under AB 1482, and an owner-occupied loan needs you moved
in within about sixty days. If no unit can be delivered vacant, this
is not a house-hack at all. And Fairfield has no multi-unit rent
comps, so our per-unit rent is a proxy, not a rent roll. If the
sitting tenants pay meaningfully less, the whole case falls toward
the index. Ask for the rent roll first. The model's at
therenthacker.com/methodology
if you want to challenge any of the inputs.
Sensitivity (rent assumptions)
Expected
$2,700/mo
+$191K
Best case
$2,800/mo
+$357K
5.5%/yr home appreciation modeled.
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Why pick #3 is the free unlock
You can guess the shape of this from the free issue: soft
Fairfield, a running SMART platform, four survivors out of
nine ZIPs. What you cannot guess are the addresses, or the
corrected math after we found the $298 HOA and the 2.41% tax
parcel that each ate half a margin.
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