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Board · North Bay · runs Mondays

North Bay, week of September 28

This board runs once a week. North Bay runs on Mondays; this one ran September 28.

82 buildings ran. 1 beat renting and index funds. 81 did not.

Each row is one building: the ten-year difference in dollars against renting plus index funds, at cautious numbers. Click a row for the numbers behind it.

The full board

Everything this run underwrote. No picks were published for this run — a thin week ships thin. Every row links to its own record.

# Property At our defaults index-tie %/yr, then the 10-yr edge Status
1 1713 Fillmore St 94533 · Downtown Fairfield · 4 units · $925,000 · underwrite this one
10.1%/yr to tie
+$5,758 House-Hack · grade C- · full underwriting, cautious case 		Underwritten — beats renting and index funds, below the publish cut
2 1718 Fillmore St 94533 · Downtown Fairfield · 4 units · $951,150 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file On hold — not yet recomputed at the current mortgage rate
Screened but not ranked: these rows carry the screening pass's numbers, taken before the sensitivity analysis the ranked rows above ran. Same comparison, coarser inputs. Compare them with each other and read the ranked rows separately.
— 424 San Marco St 94533 · 5 units · $915,000 · underwrite this one
9.5%/yr to tie
−$45,555 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 487 Hearn Ave 95407 · 3 units · $849,000 · underwrite this one
8.8%/yr to tie
−$95,562 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 12 Daniels Ave 94590 · 4 units · $950,000 · underwrite this one
8.6%/yr to tie
−$109,572 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 530 Indiana St 94590 · 2 units · $549,000 · underwrite this one
8.1%/yr to tie
−$150,063 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 834 Georgia St 94590 · 4 units · $850,000 · underwrite this one
8.1%/yr to tie
−$150,739 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 150-152 W 8th St 95401 · 4 units · $1,022,000 · underwrite this one
8.1%/yr to tie
−$161,679 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1152-1156 Louisiana St 94590 · 2 units · $635,000 · underwrite this one
7.7%/yr to tie
−$178,051 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1139 Ohio St 94590 · 2 units · $580,000 · underwrite this one
7.5%/yr to tie
−$195,140 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1722 Indiana St 94533 · 2 units · $599,000 · underwrite this one
7.5%/yr to tie
−$202,250 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1319-1321 Sacramento St 94590 · 2 units · $584,000 · underwrite this one
7.4%/yr to tie
−$200,957 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1158 Louisiana St 94590 · 3 units · $959,000 · underwrite this one
7.2%/yr to tie
−$215,592 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 909-917 Hendley St 95404 · 2 units · $795,000 · underwrite this one
7.2%/yr to tie
−$230,161 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 966 Easy St 95404 · 2 units · $630,990 · underwrite this one
7.2%/yr to tie
−$230,627 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 308 Florida St 94590 · 2 units · $599,000 · underwrite this one
7.1%/yr to tie
−$222,768 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1038 Alabama St 94590 · 2 units · $525,000 · underwrite this one
6.9%/yr to tie
−$233,538 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 500 Calaveras St 94590 · 2 units · $645,000 · underwrite this one
6.9%/yr to tie
−$233,729 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 926 Georgia St 94590 · 3 units · $749,000 · underwrite this one
6.7%/yr to tie
−$247,463 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1313 Sacramento St 94590 · 2 units · $660,000 · underwrite this one
6.5%/yr to tie
−$257,863 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1315 Tennessee St 94590 · 1 unit · $485,000 · underwrite this one
6.4%/yr to tie
−$268,457 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 235 12th St 94590 · 2 units · $550,000 · underwrite this one
6.4%/yr to tie
−$269,889 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 326 Arkansas St 94590 · 2 units · $699,000 · underwrite this one
6.3%/yr to tie
−$271,112 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 827 Pennsylvania St 94590 · 2 units · $749,900 · underwrite this one
6.2%/yr to tie
−$279,260 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 817 Alameda St 94590 · 2 units · $575,000 · underwrite this one
5.8%/yr to tie
−$306,242 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1368 Southwest Blvd 94928 · 3 units · $950,000 · underwrite this one
5.6%/yr to tie
−$341,413 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 2313 Heidi Pl 95403 · 4 units · $1,199,000 · underwrite this one
5.3%/yr to tie
−$296,663 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1044 Tuolumne St 94590 · 2 units · $650,000 · underwrite this one
5.1%/yr to tie
−$347,095 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 2038 Terry Rd 95403 · 2 units · $741,500 · underwrite this one
4.9%/yr to tie
−$316,785 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 409 Carolina St 94590 · 2 units · $815,000 · underwrite this one
4.6%/yr to tie
−$373,922 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 200 Solano St 94585 · 2 units · $749,900 · underwrite this one
4.6%/yr to tie
−$411,242 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 406 Klute St 95401 · 4 units · $1,245,000 · underwrite this one
4.5%/yr to tie
−$406,375 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 734 Florida St 94590 · 2 units · $825,000 · underwrite this one
4.4%/yr to tie
−$388,464 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 900 Cherry St 95404 · 3 units · $995,000 · underwrite this one
4.3%/yr to tie
−$423,045 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 528-530 Nason St 95404 · 2 units · $775,000 · underwrite this one
4%/yr to tie
−$438,984 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 919 Santa Clara St 94590 · 1 unit · $649,900 · underwrite this one
3.8%/yr to tie
−$422,236 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1001 Temple Ave 95404 · 2 units · $789,000 · underwrite this one
3.6%/yr to tie
−$459,240 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 611 Hendley St 95404 · 2 units · $799,000 · underwrite this one
3.4%/yr to tie
−$473,709 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 231 Tennessee St 94590 · 2 units · $899,000 · underwrite this one
2.3%/yr to tie
−$496,066 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 216 Hazel St 95401 · 2 units · $850,000 · underwrite this one
2.3%/yr to tie
−$527,230 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 476 Sonoma Ave 95401 · 2 units · $850,000 · underwrite this one
2.3%/yr to tie
−$527,230 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 709 Pope Dr 94591 · 4 units · $1,250,000 · underwrite this one
2.1%/yr to tie
−$553,047 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 870 3rd St 95404 · 2 units · $850,000 · underwrite this one
1.9%/yr to tie
−$551,940 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 4436-4438 Yukon Dr 95409 · 2 units · $920,000 · underwrite this one
1.7%/yr to tie
−$446,601 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 4941 Hansen Dr 95409 · 2 units · $899,900 · underwrite this one
1.6%/yr to tie
−$453,354 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 407-413 Rinconada Ct 94510 · 2 units · $899,000 · underwrite this one
1.4%/yr to tie
−$564,125 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 4432-4434 Yukon Dr 95409 · 2 units · $940,000 · underwrite this one
1%/yr to tie
−$475,538 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1830 Mission Blvd 95409 · 2 units · $968,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$516,049 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 17 Clay Ct 94949 · 4 units · $1,600,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$595,435 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 30 Clay Ct 94949 · 4 units · $1,600,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$595,435 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1418 B St 94559 · 4 units · $1,290,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$625,576 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 845 Louisiana St 94590 · 2 units · $1,000,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$642,932 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1852 Laurel St 94559 · 2 units · $930,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$678,659 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1532 Jefferson St 94559 · 4 units · $1,295,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$734,206 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 526 Madison St 94559 · 2 units · $975,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$744,338 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 3960 Llano Rd 95407 · 2 units · $1,225,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$745,513 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1450 Timberhill Rd 95401 · 3 units · $1,300,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$817,793 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 811 Davis St 95401 · 2 units · $1,095,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$881,703 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 514 Florida St 94590 · 2 units · $995,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$916,966 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1041 3rd St 94945 · 2 units · $1,500,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$924,014 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 86B Merrydale Rd 94903 · 2 units · $1,350,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$980,350 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 14 Sentinel Ct 94901 · 4 units · $1,845,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,005,700 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 824 Humboldt St 95404 · 2 units · $1,175,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,017,717 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 2239 Redwood Rd, Unit Abc 94558 · 3 units · $1,789,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,143,212 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1524 Fair Oaks Ct 95404 · 2 units · $1,325,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,234,741 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 33 Clay Ct 94949 · 2 units · $1,600,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,241,420 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 672 Irwin Ln 95401 · 2 units · $1,350,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,250,645 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 4147 Oakwood Dr 94534 · 2 units · $1,599,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,492,579 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1348 Grand Ave 94901 · 2 units · $1,599,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,497,372 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 720 Franklin St 94559 · 2 units · $1,495,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,503,307 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 2123 2nd St 94559 · 2 units · $1,550,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,523,952 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 49 Ursuline Rd 95403 · 2 units · $1,875,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$1,956,767 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 413-423 Webster St 94952 · 2 units · $2,400,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$2,005,333 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 408 Keller St 94952 · 2 units · $2,695,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$2,892,746 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 1109-1147 Evans Dr 95405 · 4 units · $5,250,000 · underwrite this one
0%/yr to tie
−$4,713,953 S&P 500 · first-pass screen 		Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults
— 2553 Corby Ave 95407 · 3 units · $839,980 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file Rejected — The 95407 rent research states an absence for the 2 bedroom dwelling class and instructs that it must not be underwritten, so this row has no admissible rent basis. The run priced its three 2 bedroom units off the whole home 2 bedroom band, which is a different property class. · run-sensitivity refused the derivation on the rent stack gate, so no scenario for this row was produced this week.
— 2609 Sonoma Blvd 94590 · 2 units · $475,000 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file On hold — not yet recomputed at the current mortgage rate
— 2721 Victoria Dr 95407 · 2 units · $595,000 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file Rejected — The 95407 rent research states an absence for the 2 bedroom dwelling class and instructs that it must not be underwritten, so this row has no admissible rent basis. run-sensitivity refused the derivation on the rent stack gate. · This listing and the 2721-2723 Victoria Dr listing are one parcel, assessor number 043084006000, dual listed on two boards under two MLS pairs. Only one row may stand for one building.
— 2721-2723 Victoria Dr 95407 · 2 units · $595,000 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file Rejected — The 95407 rent research states an absence for the 2 bedroom dwelling class and instructs that it must not be underwritten, so this row has no admissible rent basis. run-sensitivity refused the derivation on the rent stack gate. · This listing and the 2721 Victoria Dr listing are one parcel, assessor number 043084006000, dual listed on two boards under two MLS pairs. Only one row may stand for one building.
— 31 Valencia Ave 94901 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file Rejected — fewest-units 2-unit split of 6 beds lands both dwellings in this ZIP's unpriced 3BR-in-plex rent row (our rent research our cap rules, no comp/band exists); our strategy notes's own reclassification rule prefers dropping the property rather than extrapolating a number for every 3BR unit in the ZIP
— 310 Belle Ave 94901 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file Rejected — fewest-units 2-unit split of 6 beds lands both dwellings in this ZIP's unpriced 3BR-in-plex rent row (our rent research our cap rules, no comp/band exists); our strategy notes's own reclassification rule prefers dropping the property rather than extrapolating a number for every 3BR unit in the ZIP
— 628 Kentucky St 94590 · 4 units · $895,000 · underwrite this one — no verdict on file Rejected — The listing states the per dwelling mix: the front building holds an extra large 2 bedroom house and a 1 bedroom unit, and the back building holds two 2 bedroom units. The run read the mix as unstated and split the 8 bedrooms evenly as 2+2+2+2, pricing four 2 bedroom dwellings. · Re derived at the stated mix, with the 1 bedroom unit priced at the 94590 1 bedroom band, the cautious case loses to the index at a breakeven of 9.2 years, so this row does not beat renting and index funds.

Margins are signed and stated at our published defaults (3.5% down, cautious rents, a ten-year hold) against investing the same money in the index. They are not a forecast, and a record page is not a recommendation: only the picks are that. A rejected row keeps its number and its reason; the reason is why the number does not count.

Earlier North Bay runs in the store: September 21, 2026 · September 14, 2026 · September 7, 2026 · August 24, 2026. Every property from those weeks keeps its record page.

Have one building in mind? Underwrite that address for $79, delivered within one business day. Want every North Bay winner the week it lists? Take the pass, $49/mo.

How the numbers are built: the methodology · Run your own: the calculator · One address in mind? Underwrite it for $79 →

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