Rejected
628 Kentucky St
This one never reached the math. What stopped it is below.
94590 · North Bay
The listing states the per dwelling mix: the front building holds an extra large 2 bedroom house and a 1 bedroom unit, and the back building holds two 2 bedroom units. The run read the mix as unstated and split the 8 bedrooms evenly as 2+2+2+2, pricing four 2 bedroom dwellings.Re derived at the stated mix, with the 1 bedroom unit priced at the 94590 1 bedroom band, the cautious case loses to the index at a breakeven of 9.2 years, so this row does not beat renting and index funds.
Underwritten as of 2026-09-28 · record v18
We have no verdict for this one at our defaults.
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Why we rejected it
- The listing states the per dwelling mix: the front building holds an extra large 2 bedroom house and a 1 bedroom unit, and the back building holds two 2 bedroom units. The run read the mix as unstated and split the 8 bedrooms evenly as 2+2+2+2, pricing four 2 bedroom dwellings.
- Re derived at the stated mix, with the 1 bedroom unit priced at the 94590 1 bedroom band, the cautious case loses to the index at a breakeven of 9.2 years, so this row does not beat renting and index funds.
Rejected when we checked the listing itself.
Open these numbers in the calculator → Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours.
Property facts
| Asking price | $895,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 8 / 4 |
| Square feet | 3,248 |
| Year built | 1900 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
Unit count verified: 4 units, corroborated by the listing itself.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Solano County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$462,162 |
| Median window | 1999→2009 | +$310,632 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$1,697,330 |
13 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $687,099 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 7, $731,098 behind.
These windows track Solano County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±2.2 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1977 was 3.7 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 10 inputs behind this analysis, 5 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 2 are standing conventions; 1 is derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- Rent after you move out: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- Property tax rate: local rent regulation · single source
- Unit count: our listing feed · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
What we could not verify
- The verdict: we never had enough on this property to run the numbers, so there is nothing here to set against the S&P, and nothing to re-run with your own figures.
Members on a paid plan can request verification.
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Record v18