Because nobody trusts a paid newsletter on issue #4. Get four free. The paid tier opens once the work has earned it.

Why only the Bay Area?

SF has the widest gap between "guru says buy" and the actual 10-year math. Adding Phoenix dilutes the test.

Is this investment advice?

No. We show the assumptions, the sensitivities, the math. You decide. Nothing in the report tells anyone to buy anything.

Unsubscribe link at the bottom of every issue. One click. Nobody calls you.

Yes. I almost bought a townhouse in Maryland — pre-approved, two weeks from signing. The math came back leaning S&P 500. I walked. Full writeup .

Issue #8 · 5 editions Mon–Fri

Each week: 5 ranked deals per Bay Area region, head-to-head against the S&P 500. Every figure has a source link.

Some weeks the S&P wins. The subject line says so.

5 weekday editions · 7:30am PT

One email per region you pick. Free. Unsubscribe in one click.

Sample SF edition

Numbers vary week to week. The top 5 ship anyway. Each Bay Area region runs the same workflow on its weekday at 7:30am PT.

Email goes to Buttondown for delivery. See privacy.

The method

Scan

Every week, every multi-unit and room-rental-viable listing in Bay Area ZIPs where a duplex still pencils under owner-occupied financing. ZIPs near a funded BART or Caltrain extension, with rezoning on the docket.
Model

Every deal runs through the same model. Cautious rents from comps you can click through to. We charge ourselves for vacancy, CapEx, a property manager, and taxes. The model doesn’t get to invent anything.
Benchmark

The same down payment goes into the S&P 500 for the same timeframe. Rental-side depreciation and mortgage interest are credited at your marginal rate; what’s not modeled is named in the disclosure block. The wealth margin is reported in dollars, not percentages. If the deal can’t beat the index, it doesn’t get ranked.
Rank

Top 5 by wealth-vs-S&P 500 over 10 years, with sensitivity tables showing cautious, expected, and best-case rents. The #1 pick is the deal whose cautious case beats the index by the widest margin.

Read this before you subscribe

Your money is in VOO or a 4% HYSA. You want to know which Bay Area duplex actually beats it over 10 years.
You want cautious rents, a named BART line or zoning vote behind every growth claim, sourced numbers. Not a PDF that swapped "John" for "Sarah".
You’ll owner-occupy for two years. Maybe three. If the math beats the index on a real address.
You can handle a week where the answer is "rent and buy VOO."

You’re not shopping the Bay Area. We’re not adding Sacramento to keep you subscribed.
You want a deal delivered ready to sign. This is a research report, not a brokerage.
You can’t owner-occupy for at least a year. Without rented units offsetting your mortgage, the house-hack math stops beating the S&P 500.
You need guarantees. Some weeks none of the 5 clear the index. We tell you in the subject line.

One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.

Questions

Why free?: Because nobody trusts a paid newsletter on issue #4. Get four free. The paid tier opens once the work has earned it.
Why only the Bay Area?: SF has the widest gap between "guru says buy" and the actual 10-year math. Adding Phoenix dilutes the test.
Is this investment advice?: No. We show the assumptions, the sensitivities, the math. You decide. Nothing in the report tells anyone to buy anything.
What if I hate it?: Unsubscribe link at the bottom of every issue. One click. Nobody calls you.
Has the calculator ever told you to walk from a deal?: Yes. I almost bought a townhouse in Maryland — pre-approved, two weeks from signing. The math came back leaning S&P 500. I walked. Full writeup.