|
Free edition
The Rent Hacker
SF Peninsula, CA · July 5, 2026
1,235 listings scanned · 157 passed screen
· 24
beat the S&P 500
We scan ~1000 listings weekly so you don’t have to.
|
|
This week, our screen ran across 2 the
Peninsula-metro ZIPs. The funnel:
|
Active listings, the Peninsula metro
|
1,235
|
|
Passed market-research screen
|
157
|
|
Beat S&P 500 (cautious assumptions)
|
24
|
|
This week's top 5
|
5
|
Assumptions: 3% down, 2-year owner-occupy, then full rental. 10-year
hold vs S&P 500 total return.
|
This week nearly broke our process — and I'm glad it did. Our
first pass surfaced five "winners" with breakevens as high as
21%. Then verification caught it: the model was crediting a
depreciation tax break most of you (over $150K MAGI) can't
actually take, and had miscounted units on two buildings.
Four of the five collapsed — and the honest re-rank surfaced
cheaper winners the inflated math had buried. What's below
survived real math.
— Danny Brown, founder · danny@therenthacker.com
|
|
|
★ Pick #5 · Unlocked for free readers
3236 San Jose Ave
Top of the Hill (Daly City) · 94014
$1,150,000 · 6 bd / 3
ba · 1,640 sqft · built 1915
|
|
Wealth advantage · 10 years
+$71K
vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 11.0%/yr
for 10 years to match
|
|
Strategy
Live on one level, rent the other
|
Financing
Conventional · 3–5% down (SFR)
|
|
Live-in rent
$4,000/mo
|
Full rental
$4,800/mo
|
|
Renter pool
Daly City / SF-border commuter renters
|
Catalyst
Daly City BART + SF border (0.90 mi)
|
Why this is a steal
A permitted two-level Daly City house on the SF border — upper
4bd/2ba plus a lower 2bd/1ba with its own family room.
Live one level, rent the other, under a mile from Daly City BART.
It's the thinnest margin of the five (S&P needs 11.0%/yr),
which is exactly why it's this week's free unlock.
Pick #5 is the thinnest deal we'd still call a win: a 1915 two-level
house on the SF/Daly City border at $1.15M, where you live on one
floor and rent the other. The catch our verification flagged: the
listing describes a permitted two-level "two families" layout, but
whether the lower level leases as a genuinely separate unit — versus
just rented rooms in a shared house — swings the math; if it's the
latter, you price it as a whole-house rental and the margin
compresses hard. At an 11.0% S&P breakeven it's already our slimmest
cushion; a soft rental year or a lower level that won't rent
independently, and the index wins. We published it anyway because
it's honest — and because it shows where the Peninsula's floor really
is. The model's at therenthacker.com/methodology
if you want to challenge any of the inputs.
|
Why pick #5 is the free unlock
Pick #5's full address and complete math are free above —
that's the standard every week. The four picks above it are
in the Full Report, led by the one deal that survived our tax
correction: a verified East Palo Alto fourplex at a 16.6%
breakeven, FHA-eligible at 3.5% down.
|
|
|
Deals #1 – #4 this week · paid only
The top 4 ranked deals are behind the paywall
You unlocked #5 above. Each of the 4
below clears a wider S&P delta than your
free pick — addresses and breakeven math locked.
|
★ #1 · Top deal
4-unit fourplex · University Avenue corridor
🔒 price · address · per-unit rents · S&P delta ·
breakeven
+$500K – $600K
|
#2
$750K 3-bed · Woodland Park EPA
🔒 price · address · per-unit rents · S&P delta ·
breakeven
+$200K – $300K
|
#3
4-bed · near Meta · EPA Gardens
🔒 price · address · per-unit rents · S&P delta ·
breakeven
+$100K – $200K
|
#4
4-bed + in-law · Woodland Park EPA
🔒 price · address · per-unit rents · S&P delta ·
breakeven
+$100K – $200K
|
Four of this week's five picks sit in East Palo Alto — the
Peninsula's one sub-median, tech-adjacent island where affordable
detached homes still clear the S&P hurdle on rent alone.
|
|
Get this week's full report
|
24 deals cleared this week. Here’s the shape
of the pool you’re getting:
|
|
Median price
|
$812,000
|
|
Median S&P breakeven
|
12.0%
|
|
Median margin vs S&P
|
$108,712
|
|
By units
|
21 × 2 units (88%) · 3 × 4+ units (13%)
|
|
Five ranked deals. The reasoning behind every kill.
Get every Gate 2 kill, every rent-by-unit model, every named
risk that almost broke the deal, and the ranked pool of all
24 listings that cleared the cautious-case
S&P benchmark this week. Refund the first two issues if
they don’t pay back the $29 — reply with the word ‘refund’
and a human reads it the same day.
Subscribe
— $29/mo, first two refundable →
$29/mo · cancel anytime · first issue free if you forward
this
|
|
|
This week's 2 ZIPs
|
94014
|
Daly City · SF border, Daly City BART <1 mi
|
|
94303
|
East Palo Alto · Amazon University Circle in-ZIP, ~1,300 funded
Woodland Park units
|
|
|
Every figure uses cautious rent estimates backed by documented comps
and computed distances to named growth catalysts. No invented
numbers. No hype.
Know someone hunting for a the Peninsula deal?
Forward
this — they get a free first issue.
The Rent Hacker · SF Peninsula, CA · July 5,
2026
Manage regions ·
Unsubscribe
|
|
|