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Free edition
The Rent Hacker
SF Proper, CA · July 21, 2026
886 listings scanned · 243 passed screen
· 25
beat the S&P 500
We scan a few hundred listings weekly so you don’t
have to.
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This week, our screen ran across 12 ZIPs
in San Francisco. The funnel:
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Active listings, San Francisco metro
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886
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Passed market-research screen
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243
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Cleared S&P 500 on paper
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25
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This week's top 5
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5
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Assumptions: 3% down, 2-year owner-occupy, then full rental. 10-year
hold vs S&P 500 total return.
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Four of this week’s ten candidates died at the last gate. One
relisted over six hundred grand above the price our data feed
still showed. Another looked like a fourplex on paper and
turned out to be a triplex once I read the actual listing,
which cut its cautious margin by nearly two thirds. I’d
rather cut a pick than publish a number I can’t defend. The
five below cleared a check against the real listings, not the
aggregator.
— Danny Brown, founder · danny@therenthacker.com
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What changed this week
Debuts
A Duplex in Zuckerberg SF General Hospital debuts at #3, with
both units tenant-occupied under rent control today.
A Triplex in Family Zoning Plan corridor debuts at #4,
verified against the live listing as three units this week,
not the four the data feed implied.
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★ Pick #5 · Unlocked for free readers
· Week 3 on the board
1615 Oakdale Ave
Bayview core / Third St / T-Third spine ·
94124
$1,498,888 · 7 bd / 5
ba · 3,500 sqft · built 1989
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Wealth advantage · 10 years
+$360,221
vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 14.0%/yr
for 10 years to match
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Strategy
Live in one unit, rent the others
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Financing
Owner-occupied at 3% down
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Live-in rent
$6,200/mo
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Full rental
$10,100/mo
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Renter pool
UCSF Mission Bay trainees / Healthcare & biotech
workforce
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Catalyst
T-Third light rail (0.13 mi)
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The case, and the catch
At $1,498,888 and 0.13 mi from a T-Third light
rail stop, this Bayview triplex is a standing board pick in its
third week — it has sat about 181 days and relisted roughly
$500K higher, so underwrite the new basis carefully. Occupy
one unit and the rest cover $6,200/mo. On our cautious rents
it still beats an S&P investor by $360,221 over ten years.
Fully rented after you move out it runs about $10,100/mo.
Pick #5, this week’s free unlock, is a Bayview triplex a tenth of a
mile from the T-Third line, and it’s also the one I’d underwrite
hardest. It relisted about $500K above its January price, and that
alone cut our cautious margin from $879K to $360K; at $1.5M the deal
only clears if the rent stack holds. The building sits on Bayview
bay-fill inside a mapped liquefaction zone, so budget 0.4 to 0.8
percent of value a year for earthquake coverage the model doesn’t
carry, and confirm the soft-story retrofit. It still beats the S&P on
cautious rents. It’s just the thinnest margin on the board, which is
exactly why it’s the free one. The model's at therenthacker.com/methodology
if you want to challenge any of the inputs.
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Why pick #5 is the free unlock
You can see #5’s ZIP, its price, and that it’s a triplex from
this free issue. What you can’t see: the four picks we killed
this week and why — one flipped to an outright S&P loser once
we pulled its real price, plus the four stronger deals ranked
above it. Those are in the paid edition.
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Deals #1 – #4 this week · paid only
The top 4 ranked deals are behind the paywall
You unlocked #5 above. Each of the 4
below clears a wider S&P delta than your
free pick. Addresses and breakeven math locked.
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Two of this week’s five picks sit within a half mile of rail (San
Carlos by 16th St Mission BART, Oakdale by the T-Third line), and two
more cluster beside Zuckerberg SF General Hospital.
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Get this week's full report
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5 deals cleared this week. Here's the shape of the
pool you're getting:
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Median price
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$1,225,000
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Median S&P breakeven
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13.5%
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Median margin vs S&P
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$241,800
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By units
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5 × 1 unit (20%) · 8 × 2 units (32%) · 7 × 3
units (28%) · 5 × 4+ units (20%)
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5 ranked deals: every correction we made, and every number we
couldn't verify.
Get the full report on all 5 deals that cleared
the cautious-case S&P benchmark this week:
address, price, and stats verified against the live listing,
the cautious rent math behind every number,
downside-to-best-case sensitivity on the top three
, and one-click calculator imports to re-run every
assumption yourself. Refund the first two issues if they
don’t pay back the $29. Reply with the word ‘refund’ and a
human reads it the same day.
Subscribe
· $29/mo, first two refundable →
$29/mo · cancel anytime
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This week's 6 ZIPs
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94124
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Bayview · Lowest SF basis, T-Third rail, India Basin Park 2028
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94117
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Haight/NoPa · UCSF Parnassus $4.3B build, Family Zoning Plan
corridors
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94110
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Mission · Two BART stations, ZSFG anchor, +22% YoY rents
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94131
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Glen Park · BART 14-min downtown, 6-8 story upzone
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94112
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Excelsior/Ingleside · Balboa Park BART, City College, Balboa
Reservoir
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94118
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Inner Richmond · UCSF ~1 mi, Geary BRT Phase 2, entry-priced
flats
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Every figure uses cautious rent estimates backed by documented comps
and computed distances to named growth catalysts. Property taxes are
modeled at each ZIP's median effective rate unless a parcel-verified
figure is stated; confirm the actual tax basis with the county before
you underwrite. No invented numbers. No hype. This is not
investment advice.
Know someone hunting for San Francisco deals?
Forward
this — they can pick their region at
therenthacker.com.
The Rent Hacker · SF Proper, CA · July 21,
2026
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