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Free edition
The Rent Hacker
SF South Bay, CA · July 17, 2026
2,621 listings scanned · 379 passed screen
· 1
beat the S&P 500
We scan ~2500 listings weekly so you don’t have to.
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This week, our screen ran across 8 ZIPs
in South Bay. The funnel:
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Active listings, South Bay metro
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2,621
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Passed market-research screen
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379
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Cleared S&P 500 on paper
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3
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This week's top 1
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1
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Assumptions: 3% down, 2-year owner-occupy, then full rental. 10-year
hold vs S&P 500 total return.
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Last week I pulled the South Bay issue rather than send it.
The model had been using one county-wide property-tax rate,
and the real per-parcel rates run higher. Correcting them
wiped out all 33 of that week's apparent winners. The one
that held on was a fourplex I'd shown at a $161K
margin, which re-priced to a much thinner $35K. This
week I reran everything clean: of 379 listings
scanned, three cleared the S&P on paper and exactly one
survived the cautious rents. The same fourplex. Here it is,
tax verified.
— Danny Brown, founder · danny@therenthacker.com
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What changed this week
Nothing moved on the board this week; the lone standing pick
holds at #1 into its second week. Closer look at 1105 Appian
Ln's rent stack: our cautious full-building rent of $9,200/mo
sits just under the ~$9,469 the fourplex reportedly collects
in place today, so the by-unit math is anchored to real
leases rather than a stretch assumption.
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★ Pick #1 · Unlocked for free readers
· Week 2 on the board
1105 Appian Ln
Roosevelt Park · 95116
$1,595,000 · 8 bd / 4
ba · 3,328 sqft · built 1961
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Wealth advantage · 10 years
+$35,131
vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 10.4%/yr
for 10 years to match
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Strategy
Live in one unit, rent the other three
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Financing
Owner-occupied at 3% down
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Live-in rent
$6,900/mo
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Full rental
$9,200/mo
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Renter pool
Service and healthcare workforce / SJSU students
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Catalyst
Five Wounds Urban Village Plan (0.84 mi)
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The case, and the catch
One of the few fourplexes in Santa Clara County where the by-unit
math still clears: at $1,595,000, three rented units bring in
$6,900/mo while you live in the fourth, and all four rented
runs $9,200/mo once you move out. The S&P would need to return
10.4% every year for a decade to match it, and that's on the
most cautious rents in East San José. It sits 0.84 mi from the
Five Wounds Urban Village Plan, which hasn't priced into rents
yet. One diligence note: tenants are already in place near the top of
the rent roll, and AB 1482 caps how fast you can raise rents
and adds turnover friction, so underwrite the ramp on the current
leases rather than day-one market.
This is the only South Bay deal that survived the corrected tax math,
and it barely did: the cautious case clears the S&P by just
$35,131 over ten years. Two things could erase that. First,
the in-place rent (~$9,469/mo) already sits above our cautious model
($9,200/mo), and AB 1482 caps how fast you can raise it and
adds turnover friction, so a below-market tenant-in-place slows your
ramp. Second, the margin assumes the parcel's verified 1.50%
tax holds; a reassessment surprise compresses it further. The base
case tells a different story, nearly $600K ahead, but we
publish on the floor, not the hope. The model's at
therenthacker.com/methodology
if you want to challenge any of the inputs.
Sensitivity (rent assumptions)
Expected
$10,200/mo
+$599K
Best case
$11,400/mo
+$1.25M
5.5%/yr home appreciation modeled.
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Why pick #1 is the free unlock
This week the one deal that cleared is unlocked for you in
full, address and all, because there was only one. In a
normal week the paid tier is where the other winners live,
alongside the full ranked board we track week over week
across the Bay. You're seeing our thinnest issue on purpose;
paid is built for the weeks that aren't.
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Get this week's full report
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One deal cleared this week's cautious-case test.
Here's the shape of the pool it came from:
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Median price
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$549,888
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Median S&P breakeven
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10.4%
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Median margin vs S&P
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$35,131
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By units
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2 × 1 unit (67%) · 1 × 4+ units (33%)
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One deal cleared. The full math that proves it.
Get the full report on the one deal that cleared
the cautious-case S&P benchmark this week:
address, price, and stats verified against the live listing,
the cautious rent math behind every number,
downside-to-best-case sensitivity on the pick
, and one-click calculator imports to re-run every
assumption yourself. Refund the first two issues if they
don’t pay back the $29. Reply with the word ‘refund’ and a
human reads it the same day.
Subscribe
· $29/mo, first two refundable →
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This week's 8 ZIPs
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95116
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East San José · county's cheapest 2–4 unit stock, future Little
Portugal BART
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95133
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Berryessa / McKee · S-tier, Berryessa BART premium west of
McKee
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95035
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Milpitas · Great Mall / Milpitas BART transit core
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95131
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River Oaks / Berryessa · high-income tech-worker SFH,
BART-adjacent
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95122
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Little Saigon · walkable King & Story core, EBRC Story Rd LRT
2027–28
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95148
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Evergreen · suburban whole-home SFH, EBRC Eastridge LRT corridor
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95123
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Blossom Valley · Snell / Blossom Hill VTA node
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95132
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North Valley / Piedmont Hills · suburban whole-home SFH, Berryessa BART-adjacent
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Every figure uses cautious rent estimates backed by documented comps
and computed distances to named growth catalysts. Property taxes are
modeled at each ZIP's median effective rate unless a parcel-verified
figure is stated; confirm the actual tax basis with the county before
you underwrite. No invented numbers. No hype. This is not
investment advice.
Know someone hunting for South Bay deals?
Forward
this — they can pick their region at
therenthacker.com.
The Rent Hacker · SF South Bay, CA · July 17,
2026
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