South Bay guide · Tier S · Rank #1 of 60
House hacking in San José (East SJ / Little Portugal / Mayfair).
The county's cheapest multifamily corridor is getting a walk-up BART station physically in-ZIP plus a roughly 4x urban-village upzone: the strongest price-to-catalyst ratio in the South Bay.
Status check: Verified 2026-07-17: VTA entered 2026 with momentum. It secured $100M in new state funding, reaffirmed the single-bore tunnel, procured the TBM, and passed 70% completion on the tunnel launch structure walls at Newhall Yard; FFGA readiness is targeted Q3 2026, execution Q2 2027. The long-hold thesis (revenue 2035–37) is intact and de-risked; tier held.
What's actually happening in 95116
- Under construction
BART Phase II: the 28th St/Little Portugal station lands in-ZIP at 28th St and Five Wounds Ln, with 6,700 weekday riders projected by 2040 on a ~$12.7B program (over $5B in FTA New Starts funds committed Aug 2024). First-of-its-kind US single-bore tunnel; station completion ~2037, revenue service 2035–2037. VTA BART Phase II, 28th St/Little Portugal station
- Plan update in progress
Five Wounds Urban Village Plan Update: consolidates four villages across 195 acres, with planned housing capacity raised from 2,022 to 8,022 units (~4x) to reflect BART. Plan update in progress (CEQA 2024030360). The city page was summarized via search (it 403'd to a direct fetch), so treat exact unit counts as approximate. City of San José
- Pre-entitlement
28th St/Little Portugal VTA TOD: a 12-acre VTA parcel adjacent to the station, mixed-use; Design Development Framework public comment closed 9/18/2025. VTA
- Approved
An approved six-story Little Portugal/Five Wounds apartment complex: evidence the upzone is producing real entitlements rather than paper capacity. VTA TOD project page
- Operational
Rapid 522 BRT on Santa Clara St and Alum Rock Ave gives a ~15–20 minute ride to the Downtown SJ jobs core (~2 mi west) today, before BART opens. VTA BART Phase II
The numbers
- Median price
- ~$884,822 (Zillow ZHVI, 2026; the most affordable in-scope ZIP)
- Market rent
- 3bd ~$3,700–4,000/mo (metro by-bed read, confirm per parcel)
- Property tax (Santa Clara County)
- 1.64% median effective (per-ZIP read, 2026-07-10; parcels span 1.34% to 2.63%, verify the exact TRA)
- Per-bed rent band
- $1,050–1,400/mo per bed
- ADU rent band
- studio $1,900–2,200, 1bd $2,100–2,500, 2bd detached $2,500–2,900/mo
- Whole-home rent band
- $3,700–4,000/mo whole-home (3bd)
- Underwriting vacancy
- 4% underwriting vacancy
- Appreciation scenarios
- 2.5 / 4.0 / 6.5 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)
County prices are down ~3.5% YoY while metro rents run +9% YoY; vacancy ~4.5% with near-zero concessions. Appreciation basis: Five Wounds entitling now with BART under construction; near-term is organic plus upzone optionality, and BART delivery compounds in the 2030s. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.
Buildings we underwrote in 95116
14 buildings in 95116 carry a record. 0 beat renting and index funds; the rest did not. Every row links to its own page, with the numbers it was scored on.
| Property | At our defaults | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 757 759 Bonita Ave 2 units · $900,000 | −$410,061 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1105 Appian Ln 4 units · $1,488,000 | −$400,590 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| E William Ct 3 units · $1,250,000 | −$391,605 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| William Ct 3 units · $1,250,000 | −$391,605 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 388 S 19th St 3 units · $1,188,000 | −$461,119 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 723 Forestdale Ave 4 units · $1,395,000 | −$490,108 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2442 Clyda Dr 2 units · $998,000 | −$551,808 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2439 Clyda Dr 2 units · $948,000 | −$558,295 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2151 Lausett Ave 2 units · $998,000 | −$629,675 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 732 Banff St 2 units · $1,050,000 | −$683,604 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1011 E San Antonio St 2 units · $1,150,000 | −$804,643 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 632 Gittle Ct 2 units · $1,199,888 | −$913,273 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 345 S 21st St 2 units · $1,799,000 | −$1,691,926 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 45 S 22nd St 2 units · $1,750,000 | −$1,787,414 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
The full board shows every region's current week; this table is every record we hold for 95116, newest basis first.
The house-hack angle
Cheap-land East SJ where SB-9 lot splits and detached ADUs pencil. Best fits: an older SFH with a detached or garage-conversion ADU, or a 2–4 unit small multifamily, run room-by-room or by unit. The tenant pool is local service and trades workforce households plus Downtown-commuting service and civic workers. No blanket historic downzone applies (Little Portugal is a Business/Cultural district).
What breaks it
- BART revenue service is a decade out (2035–37): appreciation from the station is a long-hold thesis, don't credit it near-term
- Older 1950s–60s stock carries higher capex (~1.25–1.5% of value a year); budget roof, electrical, and sewer lateral
- Some parcels near US-101 and the rail line carry noise and traffic drag