San Francisco guide · Tier S · Rank #1 of 27
House hacking in San Francisco (Bayview / Hunters Point / Candlestick).
The metro's largest engineered-growth catalyst stack sits on top of its lowest price band: a buy-the-run-up TOD play where a $900K entry buys into a decades-long master-planned build-out, if the buyer can price in real cleanup and delay risk.
Status check: Verified 2026-07-14: Candlestick Point construction is beginning this summer after years of delay; Shipyard-proper environmental and permitting work is still pending. Tier held at S.
What's actually happening in 94124
- Master plan; first infrastructure phase targeted summer 2026
Hunters Point Shipyard Phase 2 / Candlestick Point: 10,672 units at build-out (7,218 Candlestick + 3,454 Shipyard), 3,348 affordable (31%), 337.7 acres of parks, 4.9M sqft office/R&D. Alice Griffith sub-area (498 units) active; FivePoint's first infrastructure phase (~675 homes) targeted to start summer 2026. OCII Hunters Point Shipyard / Candlestick Point
- In progress; gates the vertical pipeline
Navy CERCLA cleanup: $999M IDIQ demolition contract (Feb 2026, figure WARN); Parcel G demolition began March 2026; overall completion targeted Feb 2031 with litigation risk. It gates Phase 2 vertical construction, the single biggest execution risk on the stack. SF.gov shipyard cleanup status
- Under construction
India Basin Waterfront Park: 10-acre park, Phase 3 under construction, completion 2028, with a $4M EPA grant (June 2026). SF Rec & Park
- Operational; upgrades in 2026
T-Third light rail improvements: Phases 2 and 3 bring signal priority through Bayview in 2026 (4–7 minute roundtrip savings); Third St is the corridor's rail spine. SFMTA T-Third Improvements
The numbers
- Median price
- ~$933K (Haven Group), the lowest in the metro alongside 94134
- Market rent
- ~$2,900/mo tier (most affordable in the city)
- Property tax (San Francisco County)
- 1.183% combined effective (SF Treasurer FY2025-26, consolidated city and county); new buyers pay about 1.183% of purchase price in year one, then assessed value rises at the 2%/yr Prop 13 cap until resale
- Per-bed rent band
- $1,100–1,600/mo per room (workforce tier)
- ADU rent band
- $2,300–2,900/mo (ADU, basement, or in-law)
- Whole-home rent band
- $4,200–5,400/mo whole-home (3–4bd)
- Underwriting vacancy
- 4.0–4.5% underwriting vacancy (softer sub-market, longer lease-up)
- Appreciation scenarios
- 2 / 4–5 / 7–9 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)
The best rent-to-price ratio in SF, with more months of supply and negotiating room than the core. Appreciation basis: Conservative if the Navy cleanup slips past 2031; base if Alice Griffith and FivePoint infrastructure deliver on schedule; upside if shipyard vertical and the R&D program materialize. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.
Buildings we underwrote in 94124
27 buildings in 94124 carry a record. 1 beat renting and index funds, 2 rejected; the rest did not. Every row links to its own page, with the numbers it was scored on.
| Property | At our defaults | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2505 Newhall St 2 units · $888,000 | +$55,579 House-Hack | Underwritten — beats renting and index funds, below the publish cut |
| 1740 Bancroft Ave, Unit 251 1 unit · $534,457 | −$100,056 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 570 Innes Ave, Apt 302 1 unit · $599,999 | −$274,468 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2021 Silver Ave 2 units · $999,000 | −$277,858 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1678 Wallace Ave 1 unit · $749,888 | −$283,651 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1737 Mckinnon Ave 2 units · $1,150,000 | −$285,745 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 5800 3rd St, Unit 1412 1 unit · $698,000 | −$339,198 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1780 Bancroft Ave, Unit 354 1 unit · $462,066 | −$46,802 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 5110-5112 3rd St 2 units · $1,250,000 | −$249,022 S&P 500 | Rejected — mixed-use (commercial financing) |
| 1712 Quesada Ave 1 unit · $995,000 | −$260,669 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2067 Thomas Ave 1 unit · $999,980 | −$265,845 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1511 Jerrold Ave 1 unit · $975,000 | −$281,977 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1415 Hawes St 1 unit · $799,000 | −$361,492 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 134 Albatross Ct 1 unit · $660,000 | −$373,852 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 10 Innes Ct, Unit 304 1 unit · $695,000 | −$376,468 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 5800 3rd St, Unit 1310 1 unit · $749,000 | −$378,554 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 5900 3rd St, Unit 2414 1 unit · $750,000 | −$395,431 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 3444 Jennings St 2 units · $999,000 | −$428,817 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 182 Jerrold Ave 1 unit · $724,800 | −$392,408 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 50 Jerrold Ave, Apt 215 1 unit · $699,998 | −$493,692 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 5900 3rd St, Unit 2409 1 unit · $849,000 | −$504,388 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 51 Innes Ct, Apt 204 1 unit · $699,000 | −$559,019 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 80 Silverview Dr 1 unit · $979,000 | −$567,798 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 51 Innes Ct, Apt 401 1 unit · $749,800 | −$612,609 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1560 Jerrold Ave 2 units · $1,299,000 | −$838,614 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1383 Revere Ave 2 units · $1,248,000 | −$908,045 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1196 Quesada Ave 3 units · $1,088,000 | — no verdict on file | Rejected — verified-basis: the modeled count of 3 dwellings has no witness beyond the listing's own summary fields. our unit-count reconciliation reports single-source from the listing's summary fields 3 and the listing's property-type field Triplex, and the subtype is the string the chip is parsed from, so neither is independent corroboration. The listing prose states no count at all. · Two records on file point the other way. The verified listing record parcel details give zoning RH-1, which is the San Francisco residential house district that permits one dwelling per lot, and the FY 2025-26 secured bill for APN 4756021 carries no Code 92 Apartment License Fee, which the city levies on three or more residential units. · The model rents two of the three dwellings at $3,626 each for $7,251 a month, against the $3,992 a month the listing states the building collects today across one tenancy. Rent from a dwelling nothing witnesses is the direction the verified-basis gate exists to refuse. · No independent check was available this week. Every San Francisco open-data host, including data.sf.gov, the assessor and the planning map, is denied by this environment network policy, and no assessor seed is on disk. A count above the evidence with no witness at all is a stop for the row, not a worklist item. |
The full board shows every region's current week; this table is every record we hold for 94124, newest basis first.
The house-hack angle
Deep stock of detached single-family homes and 2–4-unit buildings with ADU and garage-conversion potential. The tenant pool runs workforce, first-responder, and UCSF Mission Bay-adjacent (about 2.5–3 miles northwest). Room-by-room and SFH-plus-ADU both pencil against $4,000 1-bed and $5,600 2-bed rents at a sub-$1M basis.
What breaks it
- A Navy cleanup slip (Feb 2031 target, plus litigation) defers the vertical pipeline; near-term appreciation rests on run-up anticipation ahead of delivered units
- Environmental stigma and the shipyard data-falsification history can cap resale velocity
- The $999M Navy demolition contract figure is WebSearch-only (WARN); verify Alice Griffith and FivePoint start dates before crediting them