San Francisco guide · Tier S · Rank #1 of 27

House hacking in San Francisco (Bayview / Hunters Point / Candlestick).

The metro's largest engineered-growth catalyst stack sits on top of its lowest price band: a buy-the-run-up TOD play where a $900K entry buys into a decades-long master-planned build-out, if the buyer can price in real cleanup and delay risk.

Status check: Verified 2026-07-14: Candlestick Point construction is beginning this summer after years of delay; Shipyard-proper environmental and permitting work is still pending. Tier held at S.

What's actually happening in 94124

Master plan; first infrastructure phase targeted summer 2026
Hunters Point Shipyard Phase 2 / Candlestick Point: 10,672 units at build-out (7,218 Candlestick + 3,454 Shipyard), 3,348 affordable (31%), 337.7 acres of parks, 4.9M sqft office/R&D. Alice Griffith sub-area (498 units) active; FivePoint's first infrastructure phase (~675 homes) targeted to start summer 2026. OCII Hunters Point Shipyard / Candlestick Point
In progress; gates the vertical pipeline
Navy CERCLA cleanup: $999M IDIQ demolition contract (Feb 2026, figure WARN); Parcel G demolition began March 2026; overall completion targeted Feb 2031 with litigation risk. It gates Phase 2 vertical construction, the single biggest execution risk on the stack. SF.gov shipyard cleanup status
Under construction
India Basin Waterfront Park: 10-acre park, Phase 3 under construction, completion 2028, with a $4M EPA grant (June 2026). SF Rec & Park
Operational; upgrades in 2026
T-Third light rail improvements: Phases 2 and 3 bring signal priority through Bayview in 2026 (4–7 minute roundtrip savings); Third St is the corridor's rail spine. SFMTA T-Third Improvements

The numbers

Median price: ~$933K (Haven Group), the lowest in the metro alongside 94134
Market rent: ~$2,900/mo tier (most affordable in the city)
Property tax (San Francisco County): 1.183% combined effective (SF Treasurer FY2025-26, consolidated city and county); new buyers pay about 1.183% of purchase price in year one, then assessed value rises at the 2%/yr Prop 13 cap until resale
Per-bed rent band: $1,100–1,600/mo per room (workforce tier)
ADU rent band: $2,300–2,900/mo (ADU, basement, or in-law)
Whole-home rent band: $4,200–5,400/mo whole-home (3–4bd)
Underwriting vacancy: 4.0–4.5% underwriting vacancy (softer sub-market, longer lease-up)
Appreciation scenarios: 2 / 4–5 / 7–9 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)

The best rent-to-price ratio in SF, with more months of supply and negotiating room than the core. Appreciation basis: Conservative if the Navy cleanup slips past 2031; base if Alice Griffith and FivePoint infrastructure deliver on schedule; upside if shipyard vertical and the R&D program materialize. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.

The house-hack angle

Deep stock of detached single-family homes and 2–4-unit buildings with ADU and garage-conversion potential. The tenant pool runs workforce, first-responder, and UCSF Mission Bay-adjacent (about 2.5–3 miles northwest). Room-by-room and SFH-plus-ADU both pencil against $4,000 1-bed and $5,600 2-bed rents at a sub-$1M basis.

What breaks it

A Navy cleanup slip (Feb 2031 target, plus litigation) defers the vertical pipeline; near-term appreciation rests on run-up anticipation ahead of delivered units
Environmental stigma and the shipyard data-falsification history can cap resale velocity
The $999M Navy demolition contract figure is WebSearch-only (WARN); verify Alice Griffith and FivePoint start dates before crediting them