Free edition The Rent Hacker SF East Bay, CA · August 5, 2026 5,518 active listings · 350 screened · 75 beat the S&P 500 We screened 350 of the region’s 5,518 active listings this week so you don’t have to. |
This week, our screen ran across 8 ZIPs in East Bay. The funnel: | Active listings, East Bay metro | 5,518 | | Screened (market research) | 350 | | Cleared S&P 500 on paper | 75 | | This week's top 5 | 5 |
Assumptions: 3.5% down (FHA floor), 2-year owner-occupy, then full rental. 10-year hold vs S&P 500 total return. Two of this week's candidates were paying more property tax than our model assumed. California reassesses on sale, so a parcel's own bill divided by its asking price is a floor, not an estimate. On the Fruitvale building at #3 that floor came in at 2.54% against the 1.71% county median we had been using, and repricing it cost a full point of breakeven. The second one fell out of the top five once we did the same to it. I would rather publish the smaller number and have it hold. — Danny Brown, founder · danny@therenthacker.com |
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What changed this week Exits Last week's #2, 3234 E 27th St, left the active feed at a $885,000 ask. We flagged it at a $605,546 modeled margin; its status is being verified and we will report what it turns out to be. Last week's #4, 682 8th St in Richmond, also left the active feed, last asking $359,999 against a $548,114 modeled margin. Verification is pending on that one too. Debuts 134 listings entered the target-ZIP feed this week, and two of them made the board. The debut at #2 is a Victorian multi-family in West Oakland BART corridor, a foreclosed 1883 building that has been listed 321 days. The second debut is 603 Madison St at #5, carrying the biggest rent roll of the five, 0.51 mi from 12th St / Lake Merritt BART at 139 days on market. |
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★ Pick #5 · Unlocked for free readers 603 Madison St Old Oakland / Chinatown edge · 94607 $1,050,000 · 8 bd / 4 ba · 2,460 sqft · built 1910 · 139d on market |
Wealth advantage · 10 years +$548,574 vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 15.3%/yr for 10 years to match |
Strategy Live in one unit, rent the other three | Financing Owner-occupied at 3.5% down | Live-in rent $7,050/mo | Full rental $9,400/mo | Renter pool Transbay commuters / port and downtown workforce | Catalyst 12th St / Lake Merritt BART (0.51 mi) |
The case, and the catch The biggest rent roll on this week's board: $7,050/mo from the rented units while you live in the last one, 0.51 mi from 12th St / Lake Merritt BART. Eight beds across 2,460 sqft, no unit count published, and a residential loan finances four at most, so four is what we model. If it turns out to be three, the margin compresses from roughly $549,000 to about $52,000, which is the single number to settle before you write an offer. At 139 days on market the $1,050,000 ask has had a spring and a summer to soften, and downtown Oakland's density plan sits directly under this block. The index would need 15.3% a year to beat it, and everything rented runs $9,400/mo once you move out. 603 Madison St is the unlock because it is the pick we would defend least hard, and the reason is worth saying plainly. The listing publishes 8 bedrooms across 2,460 square feet and never states how many units that is. We cap it at four, the most a residential loan will finance, but nobody has confirmed a fourth kitchen. If it turns out to be three units, the rent we underwrite at $7,050 a month falls to about $4,700 and the breakeven drops from 15.3% to 10.6%. It still beats the index at that point. It stops being the deal we described. The model's at therenthacker.com/methodology if you want to challenge any of the inputs. Why pick #5 is the free unlock Pick #5 is the free unlock because it is the thinnest of the five and the easiest to guess at: you can see the ZIP, the price band, and the strategy. The paid issue names the other four, including the one we repriced at its own parcel's tax rate instead of the county median and published anyway, a full point of breakeven lower. |
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Deals #1 – #4 this week · paid only The top 4 ranked deals are behind the paywall You unlocked #5 above. Each of the 4 below clears a wider S&P delta than your free pick. Addresses and breakeven math locked. |
Every deal on this week's board sits within 0.8 miles of its catalyst, and most of those catalysts are BART platforms. |
Get this week's full report 5 deals made this week's board, out of 75 that beat the index on paper. Here's the shape of that pool: | | Median price | $599,000 | | Median S&P breakeven | 11.2% | | Median margin vs S&P | $96,890 | | By units | 15 × 1 unit (20%) · 40 × 2 units (53%) · 4 × 3 units (5%) · 16 × 4+ units (21%) |
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5 ranked deals: every correction we made, and every number we couldn't verify. Get the full report on all 5 deals that cleared the cautious-case S&P benchmark this week: address, price, and stats verified against the live listing, the cautious rent math behind every number, downside-to-best-case sensitivity on the top three, and one-click calculator imports to re-run every assumption yourself. Refund the first two issues if they don’t pay back the $29. Reply with the word ‘refund’ and a human reads it the same day. Subscribe · $29/mo, first two refundable →$29/mo · cancel anytime |
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This week's 8 ZIPs | 94607 | Oakland · West Oakland BART, 762-unit Mandela Station TOD | | 94601 | Oakland · Fruitvale BART, SB 79 upzoning, 20 index-beaters | | 94609 | Oakland · MacArthur BART, $1.6B UCSF Benioff rebuild | | 94801 | Richmond · BART/Amtrak terminus, $130M Metrowalk II | | 94520 | Concord · Two BART stations, $6B CNWS reuse | | 94577 | San Leandro · BART + Tempo BRT, AVEVA tech campus | | 94587 | Union City · BART east entrance 2027, ACE Ph3 funded | | 94597 | Walnut Creek · BART transit village complete, premium priced in |
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Every figure uses cautious rent estimates backed by documented comps and computed distances to named growth catalysts. Property taxes are modeled at each ZIP's median effective rate unless a parcel-verified figure is stated; confirm the actual tax basis with the county before you underwrite. No invented numbers. No hype. This is not investment advice. Know someone hunting for East Bay deals? Forward this — they can pick their region at therenthacker.com. The Rent Hacker · SF East Bay, CA · August 5, 2026 Manage regions · Unsubscribe |
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