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Free edition
The Rent Hacker
SF Peninsula, CA · July 16, 2026
949 listings scanned · 347 passed screen
· 12
beat the S&P 500
We scan a few hundred listings weekly so you don’t
have to.
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This week, our screen ran across 12 ZIPs
in Peninsula. The funnel:
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Active listings, Peninsula metro
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949
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Passed market-research screen
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347
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Beat S&P 500 (cautious assumptions)
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12
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This week's top 5
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5
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Assumptions: 3% down, 2-year owner-occupy, then full rental. 10-year
hold vs S&P 500 total return.
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Small upgrade to the verification stack this week: listing
captures now pull the public tax history too. It already
earned its keep: one of this week's picks showed property
taxes running well above the county norm, and its numbers
carry a higher tax line because of it. Cheaper to find that
now than at your first tax bill.
— Danny Brown, founder · danny@therenthacker.com
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What changed this week
Debuts
Our screen grew from four ZIPs to twelve this week, and a
Roosevelt fourplex tops the board on debut at #1.
A second Friendly Acres fourplex, 1.2 miles from the county
government center, debuts at #3.
The cheapest entry point on the board, a single-bath Friendly
Acres bungalow, debuts at #5.
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★ Pick #5 · Unlocked for free readers
345 1st Ave
Friendly Acres · 94063
$775,000 · 3 bd / 1
ba · 790 sqft · built 1954
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Wealth advantage · 10 years
+$35K
vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 10.5%/yr
for 10 years to match
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Strategy
Rent out spare bedrooms while you live there, then rent the
whole house after you move out
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Financing
Owner-occupied at 3% down
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Live-in rent
$1,150/mo
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Full rental
$4,300/mo
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Renter pool
Workforce households / Transit commuters
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Catalyst
Middlefield Junction (0.85 mi)
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The case, and the catch
The cheapest entry point on this week's board: a 1954 bungalow
at $775,000 in Friendly Acres, with one bathroom shared by two
rented rooms and the owner. Rent those two rooms for $1,150/mo
while you live there, or the whole house clears ~$4,300/mo once you
move out. It sits 0.85 mi from the $155M Middlefield
Junction rebuild, and even on this modest rent stack, the S&P
needs 10.5% a year to keep up.
345 1st Ave is the cheapest way into this week's list and the
thinnest win on it. Cautious case, it beats the index by about $35K
over ten years, real but a rounding error on a decade, and the S&P
only needs 10.5%/yr to flip the verdict. What it has going for it is
the entry point: at $775K for a 1954 3bd/1ba, the cash-to-close is
the lowest of the five, and every dollar of hack-phase rent works
against a small base. One caveat the listing hides: the seller pays
$2,336/yr in property tax on a $48K Prop-13 basis; yours resets at
purchase. Our margin already models the tax at your price, not
theirs. Don't let the listing's tax line fool you. The model's at
therenthacker.com/methodology
if you want to challenge any of the inputs.
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Why pick #5 is the free unlock
The list runs five deep this week: two Redwood City
fourplexes modeled at $601K and $494K over the index, and two
standing picks still holding: one at $572K in week two, one
at $105K in week three. Paid gets every address, the
unit-by-unit rent math, and the cautious-case sensitivity
behind each number. $29/mo, cancel anytime.
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Deals #1 – #4 this week · paid only
The top 4 ranked deals are behind the paywall
You unlocked #5 above. Each of the 4
below clears a wider S&P delta than your
free pick. Addresses and breakeven math locked.
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Three of this week's five picks sit within a mile of a funded
catalyst: a Middlefield Junction play in Friendly Acres, a probate
deal on Amazon's doorstep in Woodland Park, and the Roosevelt debut a
Caltrain platform away.
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Get this week's full report
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12 deals cleared this week. Here’s the shape
of the pool you’re getting:
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Median price
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$1,349,471
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Median S&P breakeven
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13.6%
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Median margin vs S&P
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$275,168
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By units
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1 × 1 unit (8%) · 5 × 2 units (42%) · 6 × 4+
units (50%)
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5 ranked deals: every correction we made, and every number we
couldn't verify.
Get the full report on the 5 strongest of the 12
deals that cleared the cautious-case S&P
benchmark this week: address, price, and stats verified
against the live listing, the cautious rent math behind every
number, downside-to-best-case sensitivity on the top three,
and one-click calculator imports to re-run every assumption
yourself. Refund the first two issues if they don’t pay back
the $29. Reply with the word ‘refund’ and a human reads it
the same day.
Subscribe
· $29/mo, first two refundable →
$29/mo · cancel anytime
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This week's 12 ZIPs
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94063
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Redwood City (Friendly Acres) · $155M Middlefield Junction
under construction, ~69% renter
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94080
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South San Francisco · East-of-101 biotech, Grand Boulevard
upzoning
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94066
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San Bruno · Dual BART/Caltrain, ~1,000-unit Tanforan
redevelopment
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94015
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Daly City (Serramonte) · Colma BART, ~1,235-unit Serramonte Del
Rey
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94014
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Daly City (Top of the Hill) · Daly City BART, Mission St C-MU
upzoning
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94303
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East Palo Alto (Woodland Park) · ~1.2 mi to Meta, ~1,300 funded
units
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94401
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San Mateo (North Central) · B Street Caltrain, Grand Boulevard
corridor
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94403
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San Mateo (Bay Meadows) · Hillsdale Caltrain, Bay Meadows TOD
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94025
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Menlo Park (Belle Haven) · Meta HQ, 0.22 mi
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94030
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Millbrae (Station Area) · BART/Caltrain intermodal, $401M
Gateway TOD
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94061
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Redwood City (Roosevelt) · El Camino Real corridor plan,
Caltrain ~1 mi
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94070
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San Carlos (Clearfield Park) · Alexandria biotech campus, NEASP
upzoning
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The track record now updates itself
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Every pick we publish is logged the moment the issue
sends (ZIP, modeled margin, weeks on the board), and
exits get graded in public with the address revealed.
As of this week that page updates itself at send
time; there's no human step between the issue you're
reading and the receipts. Also new: the model behind
these rankings is public as an interactive
calculator, including the writeup of the Maryland
townhouse it talked me out of buying
(therenthacker.com/halethorpe).
See the receipts
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Every figure uses cautious rent estimates backed by documented comps
and computed distances to named growth catalysts. Property taxes are
modeled at each ZIP's median effective rate unless a parcel-verified
figure is stated; confirm the actual tax basis with the county before
you underwrite. No invented numbers. No hype. This is not
investment advice.
Know someone hunting for Peninsula deals?
Forward
this — they can pick their region at
therenthacker.com.
The Rent Hacker · SF Peninsula, CA · July 16,
2026
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