Free edition The Rent Hacker SF Peninsula, CA · August 13, 2026 928 active listings · 316 screened · 16 beat the S&P 500 We screened 316 of the region’s 928 active listings this week so you don’t have to. |
This week, our screen ran across 11 ZIPs in Peninsula. The funnel: | Active listings, Peninsula metro | 928 | | Screened (market research) | 316 | | Cleared S&P 500 on paper | 16 | | This week's top 5 | 5 |
Assumptions: 3.5% down (FHA floor), 2-year owner-occupy, then full rental. 10-year hold vs S&P 500 total return. |
What changed this week Debuts All five of last week's picks are still listed, and none of them changed price. 89 new listings came through the 11 screened ZIPs, and a 1969 triplex in El Camino Real corridor debuts on the board at #2 after 156 days on the market. |
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★ Pick #5 · Unlocked for free readers · Week 4 on the board 2916 Curtis Ave Friendly Acres · 94063 $2,030,000 · 7 bd / 4 ba · 4,292 sqft · built 1971 |
Wealth advantage · 10 years +$323,389 vs S&P 500 · S&P would need 13.8%/yr for 10 years to match |
Strategy Live in one unit, rent the other three | Financing Owner-occupied at 3.5% down | Live-in rent $9,900/mo | Full rental $12,400/mo | Renter pool Workforce households / Transit-commuting professionals | Catalyst North Fair Oaks Middlefield corridor upzoning (0.90 mi) |
The case, and the catch The strongest rent roll on this week's list, now in its fourth week on the board: $9,900/mo from three units while you live in the fourth, rising to $12,400/mo once you move out. The price is $2,030,000, or $473/sqft against an $816/sqft ZIP median. The seller points to recent capital upgrades, which is a reason to pay more, not less — so the discount is still unexplained and the first thing to put to the listing agent. A garage-to-ADU conversion is floated in the listing and is in none of these numbers. What nobody has explained is the price. At $473/sqft against an $816/sqft ZIP median, 2916 Curtis Ave sits 42% below its own ZIP, and the seller's stated explanation points the wrong way. If that gap turns out to be deferred maintenance on a 1971 building, a $150,000 rehab would take roughly half of the $323,389 cautious-case margin with it. The unit count is capture-verified at four; the rents are this ZIP's conservative bands, not a seller's rent roll, so treat the income line as an estimate to test against the actual leases. The model's at therenthacker.com/methodology if you want to challenge any of the inputs. Why pick #5 is the free unlock It carries the thinnest margin of the five, so you get the whole method without the four deals ranked above it. The paid issue has those four, including a triplex whose 156 days on market we had to stop ourselves from explaining away, and a fourplex priced as a gut rehab. |
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Deals #1 – #4 this week · paid only The top 4 ranked deals are behind the paywall You unlocked #5 above. Each of the 4 below clears a wider S&P delta than your free pick. Addresses and breakeven math locked. |
★ #1 · Top deal · Week 2 on the board Triplex · El Camino Real corridor, Redwood City 🔒 +$490,864 vs the S&P over 10 yrs, cautious case · address + underwriting inside +$400K – $500K | #2 1969 triplex · El Camino Real corridor 🔒 +$463,470 vs the S&P over 10 yrs, cautious case · address + underwriting inside +$400K – $500K | #3 · Week 5 on the board Fourplex · Friendly Acres, Redwood City 🔒 +$528,675 vs the S&P over 10 yrs, cautious case · address + underwriting inside +$500K – $600K | #4 · Week 5 on the board Fourplex · East Palo Alto 4 Corners 🔒 +$336,175 vs the S&P over 10 yrs, cautious case · address + underwriting inside +$300K – $400K |
Every deal on this week's board sits within 1.1 miles of its named catalyst, and the two closest are inside 0.3 miles of the same funded El Camino Real upzoning corridor. |
Get this week's full report 5 deals made this week's board, out of 16 that beat the index on paper. Here's the shape of that pool: | | Median price | $1,130,000 | | Median S&P breakeven | 12.2% | | Median margin vs S&P | $163,841 | | By units | 6 × 1 unit (38%) · 3 × 2 units (19%) · 3 × 3 units (19%) · 4 × 4+ units (25%) |
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5 ranked deals: every correction we made, and every number we couldn't verify. Get the full report on all 5 deals that cleared the cautious-case S&P benchmark this week: address, price, and stats verified against the live listing, the cautious rent math behind every number, downside-to-best-case sensitivity on the top three, and one-click calculator imports to re-run every assumption yourself. Refund the first two issues if they don’t pay back the $29. Reply with the word ‘refund’ and a human reads it the same day. Subscribe · $29/mo, first two refundable →$29/mo · cancel anytime |
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This week's 11 ZIPs | 94063 | Redwood City · North Fair Oaks upzoning, Middlefield Junction delivered | | 94002 | Belmont · Belmont Village Specific Plan, 80 acres at Caltrain; ~$2.04M median | | 94014 | Daly City · Colma BART in-ZIP, Mission St C-MU upzoning | | 94015 | Daly City · Serramonte Del Rey 1,113 units approved, two BART stations | | 94061 | Redwood City · El Camino Real Corridor Plan, Caltrain ~1 mi | | 94066 | San Bruno · Tanforan ~1,000 units atop BART, YouTube HQ | | 94070 | San Carlos · Alexandria biotech campus, two built TODs | | 94080 | South San Francisco · BART plus Caltrain, ~5,000-unit Lindenville capacity | | 94303 | East Palo Alto · 4 Corners TOD plan, Amazon University Circle | | 94401 | San Mateo · In-ZIP B Street Caltrain, no rent control | | 94403 | San Mateo · Hillsdale grade separation delivered, Bay Meadows 1,250 units |
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Every figure uses cautious rent estimates backed by documented comps and computed distances to named growth catalysts. Property taxes are modeled at each ZIP's median effective rate unless a parcel-verified figure is stated; confirm the actual tax basis with the county before you underwrite. No invented numbers. No hype. This is not investment advice. Know someone hunting for Peninsula deals? Forward this — they can pick their region at therenthacker.com. The Rent Hacker · SF Peninsula, CA · August 13, 2026 Manage regions · Unsubscribe |
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