Evaluated
170 S Lake Merced Hls
At our cautious numbers, renting and putting the same money in index funds comes out ahead. It did not pass our bar.
94132 · San Francisco
Underwritten as of 2026-08-18 · record v6
Published at our defaults: loses to the S&P, behind by $603,690 · S&P breakeven 0% first-pass screen
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This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers.
Property facts
| Asking price | $999,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Beds / baths | 4 / 3.5 |
| Square feet | 2,268 |
| Year built | 1975 |
| Property type | Townhouse |
Nearby projects on our catalyst watch:
- Pacific Plaza III-IV · 0.8 mi · proposed
- Daly City BART (500 John Daly Blvd) · 0.8 mi · open today
- Daly City BART surface-lot TOD · 0.8 mi · proposed
From the 2026-08-18 screen: 400 scanned · 34 beat the S&P at our defaults · 366 rejected.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Francisco County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$1,804,667 |
| Median window | 1983→1993 | −$296,423 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$1,409,075 |
25 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $838,669 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 10, $838,669 behind. The replay holds rent growth to the local legal cap the whole way down.
These windows track San Francisco County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.8 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 7.4 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 11 inputs behind this analysis, 2 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 1 is derived from other inputs; 1 rests on the fewest units the evidence allows.
- Purchase price: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Rent while you live in one unit: a standing area-research rule · single source
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Property tax rate: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Unit count: the fewest units the evidence allows · no independent witness
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
What we could not verify
- How far these numbers could move: we run that spread only for the eight strongest properties in each ZIP, and this one was not among them. The cautious numbers above are the only ones we have for it.
Members on a paid plan can request verification.
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Record v6 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack