Published pick
1383-1385 Florida St
Went out to readers, ahead of renting and index funds on our cautious numbers. The rent-shortfall test we use now wasn't run on it.
94110 · San Francisco
Verified
Underwritten as of 2026-08-18 · record v10 · Board pick #5 · 2026-08-18 · week 2 on the board
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $248,084 · S&P breakeven 13.4% · crash floor 2.6% full underwriting, cautious case
Run your own numbers on any building →
This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers.
The three cases
| Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | House-Hack | House-Hack | House-Hack |
| Margin vs the S&P path | +$248,084 | +$876,558 | +$1,392,366 |
| Rent while you live in one unit | $4,361/mo | $5,600/mo | $6,300/mo |
| Rent after you move out | $8,361/mo | $10,200/mo | $11,100/mo |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr | 5.5%/yr | 7.0%/yr |
| Repairs allowance | $15,000 | $8,000 | $0 |
| S&P breakeven | 13.4% | 19.4% | 22.9% |
| Crash floor | 2.6% | 0.3% | -1.1% |
| Wealth at year 10 | $977,508 | $1,605,982 | $2,121,790 |
| If you sold at year 10 | $881,366 | $1,495,038 | $1,994,024 |
Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.
Property facts
| Asking price | $1,299,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 2 |
| Beds / baths | 5 / 3 |
| Square feet | 2,411 |
| Year built | 1959 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 13 |
| Neighborhood | Northeast Mission / NEMIZ |
| Strategy lane | Live in one unit, rent the other |
| Nearest catalyst | Zuckerberg SF General Hospital (0.49 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 5.5%/yr |
Unit count verified: 2 units, corroborated by county assessor records and the listing itself.
Live in one unit, rent the other — Northeast Mission / NEMIZ · 0.49 mi from Zuckerberg SF General Hospital.
From the 2026-08-18 screen: 400 scanned · 34 beat the S&P at our defaults · 366 rejected; this one ranked #5.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Francisco County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$731,193 |
| Median window | 1991→2001 | +$524,699 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$2,521,189 |
5 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2001 downturn as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $473,380 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 8, $601,169 behind. The replay holds rent growth to the local legal cap the whole way down.
These windows track San Francisco County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.8 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 7.4 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 13 inputs behind this analysis, 3 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 3 are standing conventions; 4 are derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: an unclassified source · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Property tax rate: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Unit count: county assessor records · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
Why it made the board
A 1959 duplex on the market for the first time in over 65 years, 0.49 mi from Zuckerberg SF General and its roughly 600 beds. We published this building last week as a triplex. It has two legal flats, a 3-bed upper and a 2-bed lower, and the correction below carries the whole record. At the corrected unit count it still clears the index. Both flats are tenanted and the two sitting leases add to a verified $7,995 in monthly rent today, so we underwrite what those leases already pay and leave the Rent Ordinance where it sits. Taking the lower 2-bed means an owner move-in, which San Francisco permits once per building and bars against a tenant who is over 60, disabled, or has a child in school, so establish who lives there before you write an offer. The upper flat brings $4,361/mo while you live below, and the building runs $8,361/mo once you move out.
The play
Live in one unit, rent the other.
Financing basis: Owner-occupied at 3.5% down.
Tenant pool
Hospital staff and residents / Design and trades workforce (Zuckerberg SF General, 0.49 mi)
Rent basis
- Hack phase (you occupy one unit): $4,361/mo
- Full rental (after move-out): $8,361/mo
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Record v10 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack