Evaluated
909-911 Alvarado St
At our cautious numbers, renting and putting the same money in index funds comes out ahead. It did not pass our bar.
94114 · San Francisco
Underwritten as of 2026-09-15 · record v4
Published at our defaults: loses to the S&P, behind by $734,396 · S&P breakeven 0% first-pass screen
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Property facts
| Asking price | $1,995,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 2 |
| Beds / baths | 7 / 4 |
| Square feet | 3,843 |
| Year built | 0 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Francisco County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$2,361,096 |
| Median window | 1991→2001 | +$48,477 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$3,347,590 |
20 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2001 downturn as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $1,055,455 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 8, $1,260,567 behind. The replay holds rent growth to the local legal cap the whole way down.
These windows track San Francisco County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.8 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 7.4 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 10 inputs behind this analysis, 3 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 2 are standing conventions; 1 is derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · single source
- Rent while you live in one unit: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Rent after you move out: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Property tax rate: local rent regulation · single source
- Unit count: county assessor records · single source
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
What we could not verify
- How far these numbers could move: we run that spread only for the eight strongest properties in each ZIP, and this one was not among them. The cautious numbers above are the only ones we have for it.
Members on a paid plan can request verification.
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Record v4 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack