Evaluated
836 33rd Ave
At our cautious numbers, renting and putting the same money in index funds comes out ahead. It did not pass our bar.
94121 · San Francisco
Underwritten as of 2026-08-18 · record v10
Published at our defaults: loses to the S&P, behind by $890,283 · S&P breakeven 0% · crash floor 7.3% full underwriting, cautious case
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This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers.
The three cases
| Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Rent + S&P 500 | Rent + S&P 500 | Rent + S&P 500 |
| Margin vs the S&P path | −$890,283 | −$558,402 | −$172,265 |
| Rent while you live in one unit | $0/mo | $0/mo | $0/mo |
| Rent after you move out | $3,500/mo | $3,800/mo | $4,200/mo |
| Modeled appreciation | 3.0%/yr | 4.5%/yr | 6.0%/yr |
| Repairs allowance | $15,000 | $8,000 | $0 |
| S&P breakeven | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Crash floor | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% |
| Wealth at year 10 | −$115,865 | $216,016 | $602,153 |
| If you sold at year 10 | −$202,884 | $115,461 | $486,196 |
Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.
Property facts
| Asking price | $1,295,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Beds / baths | 3 / 2 |
| Square feet | 1,497 |
| Year built | 1924 |
| Property type | Condo |
| Neighborhood | Geary Corridor (Outer Richmond core) |
| Strategy lane | whole-house |
| Nearest catalyst | Geary Boulevard Improvement Project Phase 2 / 38-38R Geary Rapid (0.68 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.5%/yr |
whole-house — Geary Corridor (Outer Richmond core) · 0.68 mi from Geary Boulevard Improvement Project Phase 2 / 38-38R Geary Rapid.
Nearby projects on our catalyst watch:
- Golden Gate Park (north edge / Fulton St) · 0.5 mi · open today
- Family Zoning Plan — Geary/Clement/Balboa corridor upzoning · 0.7 mi · approved
- Geary Boulevard Improvement Project Phase 2 / 38–38R Geary Rapid · 0.7 mi · under construction
From the 2026-08-18 screen: 400 scanned · 34 beat the S&P at our defaults · 366 rejected; this one ranked #80.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Francisco County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$2,498,199 |
| Median window | 1983→1993 | −$484,109 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$1,727,736 |
27 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $1,172,794 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 10, $1,172,794 behind. The replay holds rent growth to the local legal cap the whole way down.
These windows track San Francisco County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.8 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 7.4 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 12 inputs behind this analysis, 2 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 2 are standing conventions; 4 are derived from other inputs; 1 rests on the fewest units the evidence allows.
- Purchase price: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Rent while you live in one unit: a standing area-research rule · single source
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Property tax rate: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Unit count: the fewest units the evidence allows · no independent witness
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
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Record v10 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack