East Bay guide · Tier A · Rank #13 of 87
House hacking in Berkeley (South-central flats / Ashby BART).
Ashby BART's West Lot TOD (about 618 units) plus the Adeline Corridor Specific Plan's ~1,400-unit vision, layered over Middle Housing by-right flats.
What's actually happening in 94703
- Board-approved
Ashby BART West Lot TOD: about 618 units, approved by the BART Board July 2025. BART
- Plan vision
Adeline Corridor Specific Plan: a roughly 1,400-unit corridor vision. City of Berkeley
- Entitled / approved
Entitled and approved towers: 3000 Shattuck (166 units), 2655 Shattuck (97 units). City of Berkeley
- Adopted
Middle Housing ordinance: 2–8 units by-right on flats, effective 2025-11-01. City of Berkeley
The numbers
- Median price
- ~Berkeley proxy (no ZIP median this run)
- Market rent
- 2bd $2,700 / 3bd $3,300 whole-home (underwriting band)
- Property tax (Alameda County)
- ~1.93% effective at the ZIP level (Berkeley citywide ~1.78%; high parcel taxes)
- Per-bed rent band
- $1,150–1,550/mo per bed
- ADU rent band
- $2,000–2,600/mo
- Whole-home rent band
- 2bd $2,700 / 3bd $3,300 whole-home
- Underwriting vacancy
- 4% underwriting vacancy
- Appreciation scenarios
- 2.0 / 3.5 / 4.5 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)
Caution: Alta Bates Ashby acute care relocates to Emeryville around 2032–33, shifting hospital-tenant demand. Appreciation basis: Ashby TOD plus the Adeline corridor; old flats at high capex; tax ~1.93%. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.
Buildings we underwrote in 94703
8 buildings in 94703 carry a record. 0 beat renting and index funds; the rest did not. Every row links to its own page, with the numbers it was scored on.
| Property | At our defaults | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1804 Derby St 2 units · $775,000 | −$298,032 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1542 Addison St 2 units · $750,000 | −$348,760 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1530 Stuart St 2 units · $849,000 | −$453,942 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1841 Cedar St 2 units · $999,000 | −$777,184 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1614 Russell St 2 units · $1,195,000 | −$942,788 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1522 Harmon St 2 units · $1,695,000 | −$1,270,685 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2045 Emerson St 2 units · $1,500,000 | −$1,348,059 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1900 Woolsey St 2 units · $1,899,000 | −$2,118,162 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
The full board shows every region's current week; this table is every record we hold for 94703, newest basis first.
The house-hack angle
Middle Housing flats within walking distance of Ashby BART; room rentals to a UC and hospital tenant mix while the Alta Bates transition plays out.
What breaks it
- Alta Bates Ashby acute care relocates ~2032–33: hospital-tenant demand shifts
- ZIP-level tax ~1.93% (high parcel taxes) is the metro's steepest and needs commensurate rent coverage
- Old flats carry high capex