East Bay guide · Tier S · Rank #5 of 87
House hacking in San Leandro (Downtown / Marina).
Two frequent-transit spines in one ZIP (San Leandro BART plus the Tempo BRT southern terminus), a delivered downtown TOD, and a 500-unit shoreline plan.
What's actually happening in 94577
- Operational
San Leandro BART (about 19 minutes to downtown Oakland) plus the Tempo BRT terminus at 10-minute headways: dual frequent transit. BART / AC Transit
- Entitled / early implementation
Monarch Bay Shoreline: up to 500 units plus hotel and retail; VTTM 8643 (148 lots) entitled and in early implementation. City of San Leandro
- Funded / delivered
San Leandro BART TOD (Cornerstone/BRIDGE, 115 affordable units) funded in the BART TOD pipeline; the downtown Centro Callan TOD (196 units) delivered 2024. BART / SF YIMBY
- Existing anchors
Kaiser San Leandro (2,100+ employees) and the AVEVA tech campus at BART are in-ZIP anchors. ZIP evidence cache (2026-07-04)
- Adopted
The 2023–2031 Housing Element raises the D-2 downtown district to 85 du/ac near transit (adopted Dec 2022, HCD-certified Feb 2023). San Leandro Housing Element
The numbers
- Median price
- ~Alameda median (not isolated this run; $1.2M county fallback)
- Market rent
- San Leandro $2,295/mo (Zumper, Apr 2026)
- Property tax (Alameda County)
- ~1.41% effective (San Leandro; notably below Oakland and Berkeley)
- Per-bed rent band
- $900–1,250/mo per bed
- ADU rent band
- $1,900–2,400/mo
- Whole-home rent band
- 2bd $2,295 / 3bd $2,800 whole-home
- Underwriting vacancy
- 5% underwriting vacancy
- Appreciation scenarios
- 1.5 / 3.0 / 4.0 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)
The 1.41% tax rate meaningfully improves the pencil vs Oakland. Appreciation basis: Dual transit; 1940s–60s stock at mid capex; the 1.41% tax aids the pencil. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.
Buildings we underwrote in 94577
6 buildings in 94577 carry a record. 0 beat renting and index funds; the rest did not. Every row links to its own page, with the numbers it was scored on.
| Property | At our defaults | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2127 Fairway Dr 1 unit · $400,000 | −$128,052 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1540 Orchard Ave 2 units · $749,950 | −$403,487 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 209 Dabner St 2 units · $990,000 | −$404,213 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 948 Karol Way 2 units · $969,000 | −$609,427 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2180 Clarke St 2 units · $1,228,888 | −$907,048 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 446 Dolores Ave 2 units · $1,288,000 | −$1,047,756 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
The full board shows every region's current week; this table is every record we hold for 94577, newest basis first.
The house-hack angle
SFH-with-ADU and small multifamily near downtown BART; room rentals to Kaiser staff and Oakland or SF commuters. The 1.41% tax, well under Oakland and Berkeley, does real work in the coverage math.
What breaks it
- Marina and shoreline projects are early-stage: verify Monarch Bay financing progress
- Industrial adjacency in West San Leandro
- No isolated ZIP median this run: re-comp at the parcel level