San Francisco guide · Tier S · Rank #2 of 27
House hacking in San Francisco (Potrero Hill / Dogpatch / Pier 70).
A converging stack of waterfront redevelopment, rail, and UCSF adjacency with capital demonstrably flowing at Mission Rock, even though the office and lab component has stalled. House-hackable Victorian and Edwardian stock in Dogpatch and Potrero Hill lets a buyer ride the residential build-out.
Status check: Verified 2026-07-14: Mission Rock Phase One is largely complete and operational, with the tower delivered.
What's actually happening in 94107
- Under construction
Mission Rock: 28 acres, ~1,200 units (40% affordable), 2.7–2.8M gsf; the first building, The Canyon (283 units), is delivered and occupied; substantial completion targeted 2026. The anchor proving capital is flowing. SF Port Mission Rock
- Early phase; long horizon
Potrero Power Station: 29 acres, ~2,601 units (30% BMR), 1.8M gsf commercial; Development Agreement effective May 2020, Phase 1 approved Oct 2020, a 30-year phased build. SF Planning Potrero Power Station
- Partially delivered; office stalled
Pier 70: 69 acres; the Building 12 market hall is delivered and Elevation Sky Park (~165k sqft) targeted early 2026; office and lab vertical buildout largely stalled after Google's anchor pullout, so model the residential pipeline rather than the office one. SF Planning Pier 70
- Operational
22nd Street Caltrain plus the T-Third: dual rail access to the Peninsula and to SoMa, Downtown, and Bayview; UCSF Mission Bay at roughly 0.5–1.5 miles is the dominant Dogpatch tenant engine. Caltrain
The numbers
- Median price
- ~$969K–1.14M (ATTOM Apr-2025 vintage; the index applies +10–18% for mid-2026)
- Market rent
- ~$4,500/mo median (Zumper)
- Property tax (San Francisco County)
- 1.183% combined effective (SF Treasurer FY2025-26, consolidated city and county); new buyers pay about 1.183% of purchase price in year one, then assessed value rises at the 2%/yr Prop 13 cap until resale
- Per-bed rent band
- $1,500–2,000/mo per room
- ADU rent band
- $2,800–3,600/mo (ADU or basement)
- Whole-home rent band
- $5,500–7,000/mo whole-home
- Underwriting vacancy
- 3.0–3.5% underwriting vacancy (UCSF Mission Bay demand)
- Appreciation scenarios
- 3 / 5 / 7 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)
Strong rent base relative to a sub-$1.15M entry. Appreciation basis: Base on Mission Rock delivering; upside if Pier 70 and Potrero Power residential accelerate. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.
Buildings we underwrote in 94107
25 buildings in 94107 carry a record. 3 beat renting and index funds, 2 rejected; the rest did not. Every row links to its own page, with the numbers it was scored on.
| Property | At our defaults | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 200 Brannan St, Apt 126 1 unit · $475,381 | +$690,500 House-Hack | Rejected — BMR deed restriction (no appreciation, room-rental barred) |
| 855 Folsom St, Apt 742 1 unit · $381,000 | +$305,904 House-Hack | Rejected — BMR deed restriction (no appreciation, room-rental barred) |
| 888 7th St, Unit 355 1 unit · $529,114 | +$258,495 House-Hack | Underwritten — beats renting and index funds, below the publish cut |
| 988 Harrison St, Unit HJ6 1 unit · $799,000 | −$227,577 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 988 Harrison St, Unit HJ9 1 unit · $869,000 | −$227,577 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 988 Harrison St, Unit HJ8 1 unit · $949,000 | −$227,577 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 631 Folsom St, Apt 15E 1 unit · $950,000 | −$367,635 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2212 23rd St 1 unit · $1,075,000 | −$368,913 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 603 Carolina St 1 unit · $995,000 | −$448,635 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2109 22nd St 2 units · $850,000 | −$198,096 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1121 Kansas St 1 unit · $1,250,000 | −$296,220 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2119 22nd St 2 units · $1,350,000 | −$300,162 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1123 Kansas St 1 unit · $1,375,000 | −$404,215 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1075-1079 Texas St 3 units · $1,960,000 | −$447,446 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 999 16th St, Apt 7 1 unit · $1,298,000 | −$559,272 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 170 King St, Unit 1027 1 unit · $1,250,000 | −$587,373 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2144 22nd St 1 unit · $1,895,000 | −$683,180 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 300 3rd St, Apt 1101 1 unit · $1,498,500 | −$932,700 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 1 S Park St, Apt 411 1 unit · $2,200,000 | −$1,279,205 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 555 2nd St 2 units · $3,995,000 | −$1,541,929 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 219 Brannan St, Unit 16K 1 unit · $1,980,000 | −$1,618,898 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 650 Delancey St, Apt 203 1 unit · $2,175,000 | −$1,656,130 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 239 Brannan St, Unit 14A 1 unit · $2,395,000 | −$1,706,490 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 2368 3rd St 2 units · $2,995,000 | −$2,102,608 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
| 954 De Haro St 2 units · $2,500,000 | −$2,179,295 S&P 500 | Underwritten — the index wins at our defaults |
The full board shows every region's current week; this table is every record we hold for 94107, newest basis first.
The house-hack angle
Dogpatch and Potrero Hill carry separable pre-1940 flats and cottages (2–4 units with in-law and basement potential). Eastern Neighborhoods zoning preserves the Potrero core as residential while Third St and Dogpatch frontage takes the corridor upzoning. Tenant pool: UCSF Mission Bay staff and trainees plus SoMa tech.
What breaks it
- The Dogpatch Landmark District constrains ADU and conversion work on contributing buildings
- Pier 70 and Potrero Power office jobs are stalled: don't credit the adjacent office-job pipeline
- Potrero Power is a 30-year phased build with delay risk; verify the UCSF Mission Bay distance at underwriting