Rejected
855 Folsom St, Apt 742
This one never reached the math. What stopped it is below.
94107 · San Francisco
BMR deed restriction (no appreciation, room-rental barred)
Underwritten as of 2026-08-18 · record v10
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $305,904 · S&P breakeven 14.5% first-pass screen
Run your own numbers on any building →
This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers.
Why we rejected it
- BMR deed restriction (no appreciation, room-rental barred)
Rejected when we checked the listing itself.
Property facts
| Asking price | $381,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Beds / baths | 2 / 1 |
| Square feet | 838 |
| Year built | 2001 |
| Property type | Condo |
Unit count verified: 1 units, corroborated by county assessor records and the listing itself.
Nearby projects on our catalyst watch:
- SoMa AI cluster (OpenAI / Anthropic / startups) · 0.1 mi · open today
- Downtown conversion core (DRFD / 30x30), adjacent east · 0.4 mi · funded
- 4th & King Caltrain station + future DTX terminus · 0.6 mi · open today
From the 2026-08-18 screen: 400 scanned · 34 beat the S&P at our defaults · 366 rejected.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Francisco County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 2002→2012 | +$270,549 |
| Median window | 1985→1995 | +$456,119 |
| Best window | 1975→1985 | +$1,007,754 |
None of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2001 downturn as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $125,761 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 8, $163,976 behind.
These windows track San Francisco County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.8 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 7.4 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 11 inputs behind this analysis, 3 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records).
- Purchase price: an unclassified source · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: a standing area-research rule · single source
- Rent after you move out: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Property tax rate: an unclassified source · no independent witness
- Unit count: county assessor records · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
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Record v10 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack