Published pick
725 Louisiana St
Went out to readers, ahead of renting and index funds on our cautious numbers. The rent-shortfall test we use now wasn't run on it.
94590 · North Bay
Verified
Underwritten as of 2026-08-24 · record v2 · Board pick #2 · 2026-08-24 · week 2 on the board
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $771,727 · S&P breakeven 17% · crash floor -8.4% full underwriting, cautious case
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This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers.
The three cases
| Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | House-Hack | House-Hack | House-Hack |
| Margin vs the S&P path | +$771,727 | +$1,074,046 | +$1,408,679 |
| Rent while you live in one unit | $6,450/mo | $6,950/mo | $7,450/mo |
| Rent after you move out | $7,600/mo | $8,250/mo | $8,950/mo |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr | 5.5%/yr | 7.0%/yr |
| Repairs allowance | $15,000 | $8,000 | $0 |
| S&P breakeven | 17% | 19% | 20.9% |
| Crash floor | -8.4% | -13.8% | -31.1% |
| Wealth at year 10 | $1,928,592 | $2,230,911 | $2,565,544 |
| If you sold at year 10 | $1,874,933 | $2,168,991 | $2,494,235 |
Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.
Property facts
| Asking price | $725,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 7 / 5 |
| Square feet | 1,892 |
| Year built | 1900 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 49 |
| Neighborhood | Downtown Vallejo (Historic Core) |
| Strategy lane | Live in one unit, rent the other three |
| Nearest catalyst | Downtown Vallejo Specific Plan / 6th Cycle upzone (0.29 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 5.5%/yr |
Unit count verified: 4 units, corroborated by the listing itself.
Live in one unit, rent the other three — Downtown Vallejo (Historic Core) · 0.29 mi from Downtown Vallejo Specific Plan / 6th Cycle upzone.
From the 2026-08-24 screen: 47 scanned · 22 beat the S&P at our defaults · 25 rejected; this one ranked #2.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Solano County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 2002→2012 | +$206,797 |
| Median window | 1993→2003 | +$956,165 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$1,886,525 |
None of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal still ends year 10 $16,705 ahead of the never-buy path.
These windows track Solano County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.6 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±2.2 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1977 was 3.7 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 12 inputs behind this analysis, 6 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 3 are standing conventions; 3 are derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Rent after you move out: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- Property tax rate: our listing feed · single source
- Unit count: our listing feed · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
Why it made the board
An 1,892 sq ft Victorian carved into four units at $725,000: a 2-bed, a 4-bed, a 1-bed and a studio. The three you don't live in carry $6,450/mo at cautious rents against a 17.0% breakeven, and not one of those rents is a measured lease, because the seller discloses no rent roll. All four units are occupied year round, so your move-in clock depends on negotiating one delivered vacant at closing. Week 2 on the board at 49 days listed.
The play
Live in one unit, rent the other three.
Financing basis: Owner-occupied at 3.5% down.
Tenant pool
Ferry commuters / SF-priced-out workforce (Vallejo Ferry Terminal, ~1.1 mi)
Rent basis
- Hack phase (you occupy one unit): $6,450/mo
- Full rental (after move-out): $7,600/mo
Published sensitivity bands
| Band | Rent | Wealth vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Cautious | $7,600/mo | +$771,727 |
| Expected | $8,250/mo | +$1,074,046 |
| Best case | $8,950/mo | +$1,408,679 |
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Record v2 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack