Evaluated
2017 27th Ave
At our cautious numbers, renting and putting the same money in index funds comes out ahead. It did not pass our bar.
94601 · East Bay
Underwritten as of 2026-09-02 · record v7
Published at our defaults: loses to the S&P, behind by $278,358 · S&P breakeven 6% first-pass screen
Run your own numbers on any building →
Open these numbers in the calculator → Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours.
Property facts
| Asking price | $475,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 2 |
| Beds / baths | 2 / 3 |
| Square feet | 1,008 |
| Year built | 1908 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
Nearby projects on our catalyst watch:
- 2700 International Blvd (75u incl. 22 veteran units) · 0.3 mi · under construction
- 2610 International Blvd (105u + 7,700 sqft childcare) · 0.3 mi · funded
- AC Transit Tempo BRT Line 1T (International Blvd median busway) · 0.3 mi · open today
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Alameda County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$722,110 |
| Median window | 2011→2021 | −$127,299 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$677,021 |
25 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $497,329 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 10, $497,329 behind.
These windows track Alameda County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±1.2 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±3.5 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 5.5 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 10 inputs behind this analysis, 3 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 2 are standing conventions; 2 are derived from other inputs; 1 rests on the fewest units the evidence allows.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · single source
- Rent while you live in one unit: the fewest units the evidence allows · no independent witness
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Property tax rate: our listing feed · single source
- Unit count: county assessor records · single source
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
What we could not verify
- How far these numbers could move: we run that spread only for the eight strongest properties in each ZIP, and this one was not among them. The cautious numbers above are the only ones we have for it.
Members on a paid plan can request verification.
Want this for an address you pick?
Every week we underwrite this metro’s 2-4 unit listings against the S&P and publish the whole board, with the reason on every one we rejected.
Want this analysis for another address?
Any San Francisco address, underwritten the same way — cautious rents, the registry, the S&P line.
Underwrite an address →A full report like this one, for an address you pick: Underwrite an address — $79, delivered within one business day.
Record v7 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack