Evaluated
3311 E 17th St
Beats renting and index funds on our cautious numbers, but by too little to survive an ordinary rent shortfall. It passed the math, not our bar.
94601 · East Bay
Underwritten as of 2026-10-07 · record v19
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $106,690 · S&P breakeven 11.2% · crash floor 1% full underwriting, cautious case
Run your own numbers on any building →
The three cases
| Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | House-Hack | House-Hack | House-Hack |
| Margin vs the S&P path | +$106,690 | +$273,124 | +$458,768 |
| Rent while you live in one unit | $3,632/mo | $3,632/mo | $3,632/mo |
| Rent after you move out | $5,332/mo | $5,532/mo | $5,732/mo |
| Modeled appreciation | 2.5%/yr | 4.0%/yr | 5.5%/yr |
| Repairs allowance | $15,000 | $8,000 | $0 |
| S&P breakeven | 11.2% | 13% | 14.7% |
| Crash floor | 1% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| Wealth at year 10 | $1,222,289 | $1,388,723 | $1,574,367 |
| If you sold at year 10 | $1,183,951 | $1,344,390 | $1,523,208 |
Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.
Open these numbers in the calculator → Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours.
Property facts
| Asking price | $599,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 6 / 4 |
| Square feet | 2,595 |
| Year built | 1895 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 504 |
| Neighborhood | Fruitvale Transit Village corridor |
| Strategy lane | multi-unit hybrid (owner occupies one of the four dwellings, the 1BR, and rents the other three; Phase 2 all four rented) |
| Nearest catalyst | 3050 International Blvd (76u + Native American Health Center) (0.28 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr |
Unit count verified: 4 units, corroborated by the listing itself.
multi-unit hybrid (owner occupies one of the four dwellings, the 1BR, and rents the other three; Phase 2 all four rented) — Fruitvale Transit Village corridor · 0.28 mi from 3050 International Blvd (76u + Native American Health Center).
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Alameda County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$91,383 |
| Median window | 2014→2024 | +$372,303 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$1,231,040 |
3 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $192,335 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 7, $293,069 behind.
These windows track Alameda County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±1.2 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±3.5 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 5.5 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 15 inputs behind this analysis, 8 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 4 are standing conventions; 2 are derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- Rent after you move out: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- Property tax rate: county assessor records · sources disagree
- Unit count: our listing feed · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
Want this for an address you pick?
Every week we underwrite this metro’s 2-4 unit listings against the S&P and publish the whole board, with the reason on every one we rejected.
Want this analysis for another address?
Any San Francisco address, underwritten the same way — cautious rents, the registry, the S&P line.
Underwrite an address →A full report like this one, for an address you pick: Underwrite an address — $79, delivered within one business day.
Record v19 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack