Evaluated
5651 Telegraph Ave
Beats renting and index funds on our cautious numbers, but by too little to survive an ordinary rent shortfall. It passed the math, not our bar.
94609 · East Bay
Underwritten as of 2026-09-23 · record v15
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $23,277 · S&P breakeven 10.3% · crash floor 2.3% full underwriting, cautious case
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The three cases
| Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | House-Hack | House-Hack | House-Hack |
| Margin vs the S&P path | +$23,277 | +$480,810 | +$932,773 |
| Rent while you live in one unit | $6,600/mo | $7,550/mo | $8,300/mo |
| Rent after you move out | $8,600/mo | $9,800/mo | $10,800/mo |
| Modeled appreciation | 2.5%/yr | 4.0%/yr | 5.5%/yr |
| Repairs allowance | $15,000 | $8,000 | $0 |
| S&P breakeven | 10.3% | 14.9% | 18.4% |
| Crash floor | 2.3% | 0.4% | -1.5% |
| Wealth at year 10 | $1,117,388 | $1,574,921 | $2,026,884 |
| If you sold at year 10 | $1,046,983 | $1,493,508 | $1,932,936 |
Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.
Open these numbers in the calculator → Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours.
Property facts
| Asking price | $1,100,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 6 / 4 |
| Square feet | 5,000 |
| Year built | 1943 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 354 |
| Neighborhood | Bushrod / Longfellow flatlands (Established) |
| Strategy lane | fourplex |
| Nearest catalyst | MacArthur BART station (0.97 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr |
Unit count verified: 4 units, corroborated by county assessor records and the listing itself.
fourplex — Bushrod / Longfellow flatlands (Established) · 0.97 mi from MacArthur BART station.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Alameda County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$472,195 |
| Median window | 2014→2024 | +$476,410 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$2,136,251 |
10 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $445,185 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 7, $599,819 behind.
These windows track Alameda County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±1.2 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±3.5 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 5.5 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 14 inputs behind this analysis, 4 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 4 are standing conventions; 5 are derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: derived from other inputs here · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Property tax rate: our listing feed · single source
- Unit count: county assessor records · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
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Record v15 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack