Evaluated
2859 E 9th St
Ahead of renting and index funds on our cautious numbers. Whether it has enough room to pass our bar wasn't measured here.
94601 · East Bay
Underwritten as of 2026-08-26 · record v2
Published at our defaults: House-Hack wins by $188,846 · S&P breakeven 12.1% · crash floor -2.5% full underwriting, cautious case
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This record was published before we began recording the mortgage rate behind each verdict, so it cannot be re-run at your numbers.
The three cases
| Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | House-Hack | House-Hack | House-Hack |
| Margin vs the S&P path | +$188,846 | +$310,444 | +$444,329 |
| Rent while you live in one unit | $1,000/mo | $1,000/mo | $1,000/mo |
| Rent after you move out | $3,600/mo | $3,800/mo | $3,995/mo |
| Modeled appreciation | 2.5%/yr | 4.0%/yr | 5.5%/yr |
| Repairs allowance | $15,000 | $8,000 | $0 |
| S&P breakeven | 12.1% | 13.4% | 14.6% |
| Crash floor | -2.5% | -4.2% | -6.3% |
| Wealth at year 10 | $1,278,220 | $1,399,818 | $1,533,703 |
| If you sold at year 10 | $1,254,219 | $1,372,063 | $1,501,675 |
Conservative leads; base and optimistic are the accompanying range, never the headline. Margin is vs. investing the same money in the S&P 500; the S&P breakeven is the yearly stock return that would tie it, and the crash floor is the yearly appreciation below which the deal loses. Wealth at year 10 counts home equity at full value; the sold line subtracts selling costs.
Property facts
| Asking price | $375,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 2 |
| Beds / baths | 5 / 2 |
| Square feet | 1,710 |
| Year built | 1907 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
| Days on market | 77 |
| Neighborhood | Lower San Antonio / Fairfax flats — interior, near the DTSC Fruitvale brownfield remediation |
| Strategy lane | duplex |
| Nearest catalyst | La Clínica de La Raza flagship (1515 Fruitvale Ave) (0.45 mi) |
| Modeled appreciation | 4.0%/yr |
Unit count verified: 2 units, corroborated by county assessor records and the listing itself.
duplex — Lower San Antonio / Fairfax flats — interior, near the DTSC Fruitvale brownfield remediation · 0.45 mi from La Clínica de La Raza flagship (1515 Fruitvale Ave).
Nearby projects on our catalyst watch:
- CA DTSC Fruitvale brownfield remediation (estuary-side) · 0.2 mi · under construction
- 1227 33rd Ave (proposed affordable, now filed as 1223 33rd Ave) · 0.4 mi · approved
- La Clínica de La Raza flagship (1515 Fruitvale Ave) · 0.5 mi · open today
From the 2026-08-26 screen: 75 scanned · 23 beat the S&P at our defaults · 52 rejected; this one ranked #14.
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for Alameda County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 2002→2012 | +$119,746 |
| Median window | 1992→2002 | +$374,824 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$875,026 |
None of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $22,835 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 6, $140,666 behind.
These windows track Alameda County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±1.2 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±3.5 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 5.5 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 12 inputs behind this analysis, 4 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 4 are standing conventions; 3 are derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · sources disagree
- Rent while you live in one unit: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: area rent comps and research bands · single source
- Property tax rate: local rent regulation · single source
- Unit count: county assessor records · corroborated
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
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Record v2 · engine aafb236 · profile fha-house-hack