Peninsula guide · Tier A · Rank #8 of 28
House hacking in San Mateo (Hillsdale / Bay Meadows / Laurelwood).
The strongest catalyst pillar of the San Mateo ZIPs: delivered grade-separated Caltrain, a 1,250-unit TOD under construction, and an in-ZIP Fortune-league employer, held to A by a ~$2.0M median. The Bay Meadows condo and townhome pocket is the sub-median entry.
What's actually happening in 94403
- Delivered
Hillsdale Caltrain rebuild plus the 25th Ave Grade Separation: $205.9M, delivered (station reopened Apr 2021, project complete Sept 2021). Caltrain
- Under construction
Bay Meadows Phase II: an 83-acre TOD with 1,250 units plus 1.25M sq ft office and parks, roughly two-thirds built. City of San Mateo
- Existing anchor
Franklin Templeton global HQ (~12,000 employees), the San Mateo anchor employer. Franklin Templeton
- Early entitlement
Hillsdale Mall redevelopment: early entitlement, ~1,392 homes proposed (~20% of the city RHNA); speculative upside only. City of San Mateo
The numbers
- Median price
- ~$2.0M (Redfin, 3 months ending May 2026)
- Market rent
- ~$3,500/mo avg, 2bd ~$3,999 (Zumper)
- Property tax (San Mateo County)
- 1.26% combined effective average (range 1.08–1.52% by tax-rate area; purchase resets the assessed basis to sale price)
- Per-bed rent band
- $1,200–1,700/mo per bed
- ADU rent band
- $2,600–3,200/mo
- Whole-home rent band
- $4,300–5,200/mo whole-home
- Underwriting vacancy
- 3–4% underwriting vacancy
- Appreciation scenarios
- 3.0 / 4.5 / 6.0 %/yr (conservative / base / upside)
Bay Meadows condos and townhomes trade well below the SFR median; AB 1482 plus mild Nov 2025 relocation and rehab-notice ordinances. Appreciation basis: The delivered grade separation plus Bay Meadows under construction; enter via the condo pocket. Rent bands are city-level medians; confirm the specific parcel before trusting any of them. Run your own scenario in the calculator.
Buildings we underwrote in 94403
1 building in 94403 carry a record. 0 beat renting and index funds, 1 rejected; the rest did not. Every row links to its own page, with the numbers it was scored on.
| Property | At our defaults | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2277-2283 S El Camino Real 4 units · $2,200,000 | — no verdict on file | Rejected — our own check (2026-09-03) confirms a MIXED-USE RETAIL building of 7 units, three ground-floor commercial suites plus four residential units, outside the 2-4 unit non-commercial MFH scope. · Source: the seller's own LoopNet listing 41115686, Property Type Retail, Subtype Storefront Retail/Residential, matched to our verified listing record on price $2,200,000, 5,000 sqft, built 1950, C3-1/R4 zoning and two storeys. · The screening that admitted it rested on the listing's own summary fields reading 'Quadruplex, Residential Income', units 4, whose verified listing record carried no prose at all. Commercial income is absent from the model, so the earlier margin was computed on the wrong building. |
The full board shows every region's current week; this table is every record we hold for 94403, newest basis first.
The house-hack angle
A Bay Meadows condo or townhome as the affordable entry near the grade-separated station; SFR plus ADU on the Hillsdale, Laurelwood, and Sugarloaf tracts.
What breaks it
- A ~$2.0M median compresses the S&P math outside the condo pocket
- Franklin Templeton consolidation risk on the jobs leg
- Hillsdale Mall is early and preliminary; Sugarloaf hillside slope constrains ADU adds