Rejected
2277-2283 S El Camino Real
This one never reached the math. What stopped it is below.
94403 · Peninsula
our own check (2026-09-03) confirms a MIXED-USE RETAIL building of 7 units, three ground-floor commercial suites plus four residential units, outside the 2-4 unit non-commercial MFH scope.Source: the seller's own LoopNet listing 41115686, Property Type Retail, Subtype Storefront Retail/Residential, matched to our verified listing record on price $2,200,000, 5,000 sqft, built 1950, C3-1/R4 zoning and two storeys.The screening that admitted it rested on the listing's own summary fields reading 'Quadruplex, Residential Income', units 4, whose verified listing record carried no prose at all. Commercial income is absent from the model, so the earlier margin was computed on the wrong building.
Underwritten as of 2026-09-03 · record v5
We have no verdict for this one at our defaults.
Run your own numbers on any building →
Your numbers are not available on this record yet.
Why we rejected it
- our own check (2026-09-03) confirms a MIXED-USE RETAIL building of 7 units, three ground-floor commercial suites plus four residential units, outside the 2-4 unit non-commercial MFH scope.
- Source: the seller's own LoopNet listing 41115686, Property Type Retail, Subtype Storefront Retail/Residential, matched to our verified listing record on price $2,200,000, 5,000 sqft, built 1950, C3-1/R4 zoning and two storeys.
- The screening that admitted it rested on the listing's own summary fields reading 'Quadruplex, Residential Income', units 4, whose verified listing record carried no prose at all. Commercial income is absent from the model, so the earlier margin was computed on the wrong building.
Rejected when we checked the listing itself.
Open these numbers in the calculator → Every slider starts at this page's inputs; change any of them and the verdict re-runs at yours.
Property facts
| Asking price | $2,200,000 |
|---|---|
| Units | 4 |
| Beds / baths | 0 / 0 |
| Square feet | 5,000 |
| Year built | 1950 |
| Property type | Multi-Family |
Nearby projects on our catalyst watch:
- San Mateo Rail Corridor TOD Plan (planning catalyst) · 0.1 mi · approved
- Caltrain Electrification (Caltrain Modernization Program) · 0.2 mi · open today
- Hillsdale Caltrain Station (25th Ave Grade Separation) · 0.2 mi · open today
If the market turns
Modeled appreciation is an assumption, so we replayed this deal against history: every 10-year window in the federal house-price index for San Mateo County (41 windows), each one swapping its actual price path in for our modeled appreciation.
| History replay | Years | Ends vs the never-buy path |
|---|---|---|
| Worst window | 1989→1999 | −$858,565 |
| Median window | 1991→2001 | +$1,032,338 |
| Best window | 1996→2006 | +$3,940,339 |
2 of the 41 windows ended behind the never-buy path.
Replay the 2008 crash as it hit this area and the deal ends year 10 $524,641 behind the never-buy path; the deepest point comes in year 7, $942,570 behind.
These windows track San Mateo County as a whole. Within the county, individual ZIPs' realized 10-year outcomes typically differed from the county's by about ±0.5 points/yr — one zip-decade in ten differed by ±1.4 points/yr or more, and the largest gap since 1975 was 6.3 points/yr. A specific building varies more than its ZIP, not less.
Where these numbers come from
Of the 10 inputs behind this analysis, 3 trace to evidence (our listing feed, area comps, county records); 2 are standing conventions; 4 are derived from other inputs.
- Purchase price: our listing feed · corroborated
- Rent while you live in one unit: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Rent after you move out: derived from other inputs here · single source
- The rent you would pay on the never-buy path: derived from other inputs here · single source
- Property tax rate: our listing feed · single source
- Unit count: a prior adjudicated ruling · single source
A standing convention is a deliberate modeling choice we apply to every deal. We flag it rather than dress it up as evidence.
What we could not verify
- The verdict: we never had enough on this property to run the numbers, so there is nothing here to set against the S&P, and nothing to re-run with your own figures.
Members on a paid plan can request verification.
Want this for an address you pick?
Every week we underwrite this metro’s 2-4 unit listings against the S&P and publish the whole board, with the reason on every one we rejected.
Want this analysis for another address?
Any San Francisco address, underwritten the same way — cautious rents, the registry, the S&P line.
Underwrite an address →A full report like this one, for an address you pick: Underwrite an address — $79, delivered within one business day.
Record v5